December Discussion with WT360

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 3, 2017 17:27

December Discussion with WT360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of December 2017 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ – Newark Basin), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 4-7 day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends is what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

nnj12-2017

Higher Elevation Discussion: This region will see a warmer surge of air on Monday and Tuesday (Dec 4-5). Pre-frontal SW flow will be the culprit. A period of rain is expected with the cold front passage Tuesday PM through Wednesday AM (Dec 5-6). Once the cold front is through, winter will begin on mother nature’s calendar (Dec 6-forward). Flow will switch to the NW as several pieces of polar vortex energy influence New Jersey. With that said, Dec 6 until about Dc 18 looks to feature colder temperatures (highs just breaking into the 30s and overnight lows falling into single-digits) with a favorable upper-level pattern for winter storm development. The two immediate potential snowy periods I’m focusing on are ~Dec 8-10 and ~Dec 12-14. From about December 18 until maybe Christmas Eve, the wintry pattern is expected to relax (highs back into the 40s and overnight lows only falling into the 20s) before reloading with more Arctic shots from Christmas through New Years.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

cnj12-2017

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: This region will see a warmer surge of air on Monday and Tuesday (Dec 4-5). Pre-frontal SW flow will be the culprit. A period of rain is expected with the cold front passage Tuesday PM through Wednesday AM (Dec 5-6). Once the cold front is through, winter will begin on mother nature’s calendar (Dec 6-forward). Flow will switch to the NW as several pieces of polar vortex energy influence New Jersey. With that said, Dec 6 until about Dc 18 looks to feature colder temperatures (highs near-40 and overnight lows falling into teens/lower-20s) with a favorable upper-level pattern for winter storm development. The two immediate potential snowy periods I’m focusing on are ~Dec 8-10 and ~Dec 12-14. From about December 18 until maybe Christmas Eve, the wintry pattern is expected to relax (highs back into the lower-50s and overnight lows only falling to near-30) before reloading with more Arctic shots from Christmas through New Years.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

snj12-2017

Coastal Region Discussion: This region will see a warmer surge of air on Monday and Tuesday (Dec 4-5). Pre-frontal SW flow will be the culprit. A period of rain is expected with the cold front passage Tuesday PM through Wednesday AM (Dec 5-6). Once the cold front is through, winter will begin on mother nature’s calendar (Dec 6-forward). Flow will switch to the NW as several pieces of polar vortex energy influence New Jersey. With that said, Dec 6 until about Dec 18 looks to feature colder temperatures (highs just breaking into the 40s and overnight lows falling into the upper-teens/20s) with a favorable upper-level pattern for winter storm development. The two immediate potential snowy periods I’m focusing on are ~Dec 8-10 and ~Dec 12-14. From about December 18 until maybe Christmas Eve, the wintry pattern is expected to relax (highs back into the 50s and overnight lows only falling into the 30s) before reloading with more Arctic shots from Christmas through New Years.

Winter Storm Discussion: The anticipation for a colder December is much more certain than any single winter storm that could develop. What we DO know is that the upper-level pattern is very favorable for winter storm development in the Dec 6-18 period. As soon as mid-to-long range ensembles begin agreeing on a surface solution (a winter storm) then we will have details to talk about. Right now the surface models are all over the place for this period but most are keying in on ~Dec 9 and ~Dec 13 for the best periods of potential. Regardless of how it plays out, I’m sure at least some parts of New Jersey will be seeing images like the one above. We have synoptic potential as well as lake-effect/squall potential. The ~Dec 18-24 reload period is expected and will likely be welcome after the 12-day period of cold (Dec 6-18). As mentioned above, we should hop right back into the Arctic surges of cold air Christmas-forward. It’s important to keep in mind that areas NW of the turnpike often do better than areas SE of the turnpike regarding snowfall accumulation. The ocean is still on the warmer side which especially inhibits SENJ from snowfall accumulations. It can happen (see Dec 17, 2009) but it is rare. It’s game-on for those along and NW of the turnpike though.

Everyone have a great December and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr December 3, 2017 17:27

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