Fall Start & Wintry Finish this Week (Nov 10-14)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 10, 2014 10:36

Fall Start & Wintry Finish this Week (Nov 10-14)

Expect a few mild days of sunny weather to start the week (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will then move through and noticeably drop temperatures heading into the weekend. I’d say we’re looking at 10 degrees below average starting on Thursday and as much as 15 degrees below average next week. Some precipitation is possible surrounding each day of the frontal passage but nothing disruptive. I’m much more interested in the Sunday-Tuesday period for snow than this Thursday. Let’s look at each day:

Monday should be mostly sunny with highs in the lower 60s. Winds should be light out of the SW before overnight lows fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s.

Tuesday should have variable clouds with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Just a small chance of light rain showers. Winds should remain light but more out of the S than SW. Overnight lows then drop into the lower-50s.

Wednesday should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds as winds change to the NW (5-15mph). Temperatures will still reach the 60s but it should feel drier and cooler. Overnight lows then plunge into the lower 30s as the cold front passes through.

Thursday will feel noticeably colder as high temperatures top out in the 40s with 15-20mph gusts out of the NW. Overnight lows should drop to just below freezing. With strong NW flow over the great lakes, lake effect precipitation is very possible (rain, sleet and/or snow). We saw some of this reach the coast this past Friday. Also a weak low pressure disturbance could add in additional moisture. We will have to monitor the radar for such. Disruptive accumulations are not expected at this time but you all know how people get with snow in the air. Please be careful!

Friday should be even colder with highs just getting into the 40s and more gusty NW winds. There will be plenty of sunshine before lows drop into the 20s statewide. I wouldn’t be surprised to see NWNJ in the teens early Saturday morning. Again, snow showers are possible with strong NW flow over the lakes and weak low pressure offshore (nothing crazy)

I’m closely monitoring the Sunday-Tuesday period (November 16-18) for wintry precipitation. As it stands right now, a low pressure system wants to throw some Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean moisture into the mid-Atlantic where cold air will be in place. As always, NWNJ has a much better chance of this than SENJ given the interior + elevation advantage of less oceanic influence. I’ll post more about it as I follow this week.

This Monday-Friday Outlook is proudly powered and sponsored by weathertrends360 (www.weathertrends360.com). Through 150 years of world wide weather data analysis, weathertrends360 has developed proprietary algorithms and methods that predict weather up to a year with 84% accuracy. They are second to none in the long range so check them out for business planning, travel planning, etc.

I took this photo near the Delaware Bay. Be safe and have a great week! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 10, 2014 10:36

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