Feb 18: Weekend Rain Detected

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 18, 2015 16:55

Feb 18: Weekend Rain Detected

A low pressure disturbance will sneak between two Arctic air masses this Saturday night into Sunday. The central low pressure track will likely be just west of/along the Appalachian Mountains which traditionally spells rain for New Jersey and nearby surrounding areas. The only wintry concern is at the onset of precipitation when the ground might still be at or below freezing despite warmer mid-levels of the atmosphere. If this ends up being the case, then a period of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain is possible for NNJ and CNJ to start before going over to all rain. I suppose the upper elevations of NWNJ could squeeze out some light slushy accumulations but SNJ will likely be mostly rain throughout the entire event. Timing as of now looks like Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon.

Here is the 12Z GFS (850mb pressure, temperature and precipitation) which illustrates the westerly track during 1AM and 7AM Sunday morning:

gfs

 

In English: It’s going to rain Saturday night into Sunday for most of New Jersey. The further north you are, the better the chance for some light wintry precipitation (snow, sleet and/or freezing rain) to start. Otherwise it should be a fairly quick changeover to rain (if it doesn’t start as rain). It will be very cold before (Thursday-Friday) and after (Sunday night into next week) this disturbance. Strong winds on the back side of the precipitation should help evaporate most rods before freezing but black ice should be at least a minor concern for Sunday night into Monday. The next threat beyond that is too far out to confidently analyze but models like an active period between February 24-28. I’ll be tracking. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 18, 2015 16:55

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