Gorgeous but Chilly Weekend Expected (Oct 14-16)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 13, 2016 14:09

Gorgeous but Chilly Weekend Expected (Oct 14-16)

Other than a chance of a sprinkle this afternoon-evening and overall chilly temperatures, the weekend looks dry and sunny. Let’s break it down…

Nerdy Disco: First, Hurricane Nicole is currently hitting Bermuda but poses no threat to the US East Coast aside from rip currents, mostly. Some chest high swell sets have been reported along the Jersey Shore for any surfers interested. Otherwise, our thoughts and hopes are with Bermuda for the safest outcome possible given the circumstances.  Moving forward, a cold front, attached to a Canadian low pressure system, will move through the New Jersey region between this evening and early Friday morning. The frontal passage is modeled mostly dry however a few isolated and light rain showers are possible along and ahead of the cold front. Many areas could remain dry. Once the front is through, winds will shift to the N again and inject our region with more cool flow out of Canada. This will be due to the E side of anti-cyclonic (high pressure) influence approaching our region. By Saturday and Sunday, the center of the high pressure should be overhead so N winds should relax into light E flow allowing for beautiful weather typical of October in New Jersey. High pressure will then move out to sea Sunday into Monday which will switch the return flow back out of the S/SW for New Jersey. We’ll then continue to moderate in another warm sector early next week and deal with another cold frontal passage later next week. 

Friday (Oct 14) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s statewide (small chance some areas fail to escape 50s). Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the N so wind chills could be in effect. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for immediate coastal areas, the 30s for most of the state, and ready for this? …possibly the 20s for NNJ elevations. Frost and/or freeze conditions should be anticipated overnight. Watch out for any AM fog that may occur Saturday morning.

Saturday (Oct 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for NNJ elevations, the 40s for most of New Jersey, and the 50s for immediate coastal areas. Again, watch out for any AM fog that may occur Sunday morning.

Sunday (Oct 16) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s for most and possibly even the lower-70s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should only fall into the 50s statewide. Once more, watch out for any AM fog that may occur Monday morning.

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An early look at next week indicates a milder first half with some rain possible Monday PM into Tuesday AM. We’ll likely stay in the warm sector of another approaching Canadian low pressure system until its attached cold front swings through in the Wednesday PM-Thursday AM period. Next weekend is a little far out so let’s revisit on Sunday night with the Monday-Friday outlook release.

Some side notes… A full moon should dominate overnight skies this weekend. I expect cool and crisp air with lots of star visibility however the full moon should add a decent amount of lunar light pollution for stargazers while providing extra ground illumination. Ocean surface temperatures have cooled down to the lower-60s between Monmouth and Cape May Counties. With air temperatures falling below ocean surface temperatures, watch out for any overnight/AM fog that may form should dew points and temperatures meet at the surface. This general fog threat is good through most of October. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 13, 2016 14:09

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