Gorgeous Weather Expected (Aug 25-27)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 24, 2017 21:00

Gorgeous Weather Expected (Aug 25-27)

This weekend should feature sunny, dry and comfortable weather. Let’s break it down…

Weekend Discussion: I know the word gorgeous is relative. Some find winter snow and/or brutal humidity gorgeous but most find S California conditions to be perfect for outdoor activities and plans. And that’s just what we’re looking at this weekend. The main synoptic players are high pressure to our N and low pressure to our SE. The high pressure should hold the low pressure to our SE but tag up with it’s cyclonic northern side. This should produce onshore flow from the Atlantic Ocean into New Jersey for a period lasting well into next week. The onshore flow will be light for Saturday and Sunday which will allow for clearer skies. There might still be some northerly flow for areas away from the ocean. The onshore flow should then ramp up for Monday-Wednesday which in theory would increase cloudiness region-wide. Regardless, temperatures should remain comfortable through the entire period. Coastal fog could be a concern overnight. Areas away from the ocean could be 25+ degrees colder than the warm air coming off the near-80 degree ocean. It’s a little too early to speak to Labor Day Weekend at the moment with such uncertainty surrounding the remnants of Harvey. Let’s revisit that in a few days.

Tropics Discussion: I’ll keep the Harvey stuff here in the technical discussion for now. The situation is very dire for the SE TX coast tomorrow into the weekend. Sustained wind and wind gust measurements will likely be life-threatening and destructive. Inches of rainfall and feet of storm surge could be measured in double-digits (days of rain and multiple tidal cycles). All of the Texas coast watershed that drains into the Gulf of Mexico will have nowhere to go. If you know anyone who is thinking of riding out landfall on the coast or in the immediate coastal area, please tell them to re-consider. If it were my friends or family I would tell them “GTFO or die” are their choices. It appears that landfall will occur somewhere in the ~Corpus Christie-Galveston area sometime tomorrow. Models are spraying a few different timing solutions given the slow unpredictable nature of the system but definitely by Saturday morning. Once Harvey makes landfall and lingers in the NW gulf state area, he should start to move away to the E/NE and get caught in the jet stream. Major weakening will occur and Harvey will lose tropical characteristics. If the frontal boundary lined up and timed right then rainy remnants could make their way over New Jersey later next week into Labor Day Weekend. Again, let’s take a look in a few days at that. For now there are no current tropical threats to New Jersey. 

Friday (Aug 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. SNJ has the best chance of reaching 80. Skies should be partly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NW for most. A light onshore flow is possible for immediate coastal regions. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s for NNJ elevations, the 50s for most, and lower-60s along the immediate coast.

Saturday (Aug 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Again, SNJ could touch 80. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with coastal regions likely hanging around 60.

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Sunday (Aug 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with coastal regions likely hanging in the low-to-mid 60s.

An early look at next week indicates continued comfortable onshore flow but windier off the ocean and with increased cloud coverage. These conditions should persist through mid-week before we head into Labor Day Weekend. Let’s take a closer look at that on Sunday night when I put the Monday-Friday Outlook out. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

 

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr August 24, 2017 21:00

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