Jan 13: South Jersey Express Snow Detected!

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 13, 2015 12:18

Jan 13: South Jersey Express Snow Detected!

First, it’s my birthday today so let me say that this is a wonderful natural gift! Light snow in SNJ on Wednesday has been showing up on model guidance for the past 36 hours or so and it now looks likely. Here’s the details…

A weak area of low pressure will be moving out to sea—east of OBX and east of a traditional benchmark track. The precipitation shield to the north and west of this weak low should graze SNJ/SENJ with light snow. Before we get too excited here…we’re talking anything from a coating-few inches up to a surprise 3 inches plus. We’ll see! Major cities along I-95 (Philly, NYC, etc) need not worry about this. Snow lovers in NNJ/CNJ will likely be measured, weighed and found wanting with sunny skies. This is a SNJ special which means the northern cut-off of precipitation could fall anywhere between the Atlantic City Expressway and I-195.

The longer-range Canadian first showed this possible solution when it came out late Sunday night. That’s why I included the possibility in my Monday-Friday Outlook. It’s now showing on short-range model guidance which greatly increases the likelihood of it happening. This is the shorter range Canadian RGEM showing estimated snowfall through Wednesday afternoon. This model starts precipitation between 7AM and 10AM Wednesday morning.

rgem

Next up is the American NAM short range model showing 850mb pressure, temperature and precipitation between 1PM and 4PM on Wednesday. Notice the line of freezing is all the way to the coast. Also, keep in mind this is only a 3-hour model slide. Light snow is also modeled on this model to begin between 7AM-10AM.

nam

In English: SNJ, especially SENJ, should expect a light snow event starting tomorrow morning and ending by afternoon. I would say a coating to a couple of inches is the most likely scenario (jackpot zone should be extreme SENJ). I’ll be live-casting in case there are any surprises. With most of this snowfall happening  to the S and SE of major network markets, assume it will be downplayed and neglected. Not here! Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 13, 2015 12:18

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