Jan 31: Winter Storm Update – 2nd Call Map

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 31, 2015 19:18

Jan 31: Winter Storm Update – 2nd Call Map

map

Model guidance trended northward last night and today. Instead of a weaker ~1004mb low passing over the VA/NC border, a ~995mb is modeled to pass over the Delmarva Peninsula and SNJ. The low is simply northward because it’s slightly amped than what guidance was showing prior to the trend. The stronger the low, the more N/NW it will track. What’s crazy is that the northward trend might not be finished.

The low will hurl warm/moist air northward into a very cold air mass reinforced by high pressure. The surface will still be cold while the warmer air invades at higher levels. This is a recipe for sleet and/or freezing rain. I think this will be more of an issue for CNJ than NNJ or SNJ. We’re really going to have to watch CNJ, especially between I-195 and I-80. It really could go either way. The darker blue area to the north has the best chance at staying all snow. SNJ and SENJ might see some front end snow but will go over to cold rain for most of the event. There’s still some time for more trending which is why my final call and snow map wont be posted until tomorrow evening just prior to the Super Bowl.

In English: The map is pretty straight forward. This is not a black-and-white (rain or snow) system. All wintry precipitation types are on the table including snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. There will likely be a period of snow to start tomorrow night…then the mixing/rain for CNJ/SNJ overnight into Monday…and finally a period of snow to end as temperatures crash behind the low on Monday. Final call and snow map will be posted by 6PM tomorrow at which point now-casting will commence. Be safe! JC

Model image used with permission from WeatherBell Analytics.

coupon Ramsey Outdoors

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 31, 2015 19:18

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