Mar 1: Thunderstorm Update

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 1, 2017 10:59

Mar 1: Thunderstorm Update

Pre-frontal rainfall and thunderstorms have already moved through NNJ. This should impact the main event later today…

Disco: We have another potential severe outbreak for the Mid-Atlantic US shaping up. However points N which have seen rainfall and thunderstorms already this morning could be stabilized for the main event along the cold front later today. With that said, here’s out thinking heading in…

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Click here for full resolution storm impact map.

SNJ is favored for stronger storms than NNJ, especially extreme SNJ. The reason for this is diurnal heating duration (hours that the sun can reach the ground and heat it up higher than the air aloft). Since heat rises, this creates the instability needed to enhance the dynamics of the storms aloft. Here’s a visible satellite image illustrating the main envelope of cloud clearing moving E ahead of the cold front and riding storms. This illustrates that southern parts of NJ will likely see more diurnal heating that northern parts of NJ. It’s still cloudy statewide right now but SNJ should see this approaching clearing soon. Since SWNJ will see the clearing first and the longest, they are ground zero Jersey-wise:

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In English: NNJ has already seen rainfall and thunderstorms this morning. The rest of the state remains cloudy. In a few hours, skies should begin clearing (moreso for SNJ than NNJ). This should create a muggy feel and set up the best storm chances for SNJ later today (ahead of the cold front). The best overall timing window I can give right now is 2PM to 6PM (a 1 hour period of rain and storms from WNJ to ENJ). I would expect a period of moderate-to-heavy rainfall (possibly small hail), lightning and gusty winds. The National Weather Service will trigger Severe Thunderstorm Warnings if criteria is met. Again, SNJ is favored over NNJ. NNJ could still see some rain, wind and storms but not as strong as extreme SNJ and especially SWNJ. CNJ could go either way so best to prepare for severe critieria and hope for the same fate as NNJ. Everyone have a great Wednesday and please be safe! JC

 

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 1, 2017 10:59

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