Mar 2: Watching Two Wintry Disturbances

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 2, 2015 11:41

Mar 2: Watching Two Wintry Disturbances

A cut-off low pressure disturbance in the SW US is responsible for sending a few waves of energy eastward along a slow moving frontal boundary. This means a few snow chances for New Jersey this week. The frontal boundary will be moving northward Tuesday-Wednesday and southward Wednesday-Thursday. This is why we are looking at a snow-to-rain situation tomorrow, light rain showers and mild temperatures on Wednesday, and snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

Tomorrow’s first wave of energy is modeled with lesser wintry impact. CNJ and SNJ should see very little snow to start before transitioning to ice and then rain. NNJ has the best chance for some light accumulations before the changeover to rain. The timing is tomorrow afternoon/evening through early Wednesday morning. Here’s the latest GFS showing precipitation between 1PM and 7PM tomorrow:

gfs

This next GFS slide shows precipitation between 7AM and 1PM on Wednesday. This is when temperatures will feel mild with 40s throughout most of the state and SENJ approaching 50:

gfs

Eventually temperatures will begin to drop Wednesday evening as that frontal boundary pushes back south with a weak low pressure disturbance riding though. This will change the rain back over to accumulating snow as seen here between 1AM and 7AM on Thursday morning:

gfs

In English: Expect snow to rain tomorrow evening, warmer on-and-off rain showers on Wednesday and rain to snow Wednesday night into Thursday. I doubt anyone will see more than a coating to a few inches tomorrow evening (best chance in NNJ) but Thursday could bring significant (3-6″) to heavy (6-12″) accumulations throughout the state. The jackpot zone is uncertain at this point. I’ll likely just now-cast tomorrow but will have an initial snow map out for Thursday by tomorrow afternoon. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr March 2, 2015 11:41

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