Mar 20: Updated Storm Impact Map
Here is my latest and final storm impact map. This will be the last map I issue as we are now in live-casting mode:
Dark blue area: This is my expected jackpot zone once rain changes over to snow. Roads will see less accumulations than natural surfaces.
Light blue area: NW region should simply see less snowfall but under colder conditions. SE region will be last to change from rain to snow despite still seeing higher amounts of precipitation overall.
Gray area: This will be the NW cut-off in precipitation with the coldest conditions of the precipitation shield.
Red-boxed area: This area could see intense mesoscale banding of snowfall during overnight/early-Monday AM hours. Should this occur, then expected accumulations could bust low. I would give this a 25% chance of happening.
In English: Precipitation should start in SNJ by afternoon hours and spread into most/all of NJ by evening hours. Rain should change to snow around the general sunset time and accumulate on natural surfaces much more easily than on paved surfaces/roads. Snow could then fall overnight and into the AM hours of Monday before the storm eventually pulls away to the E. If this wraps up before midnight then minimal travel disruption is expected. If it lasts through 3-4AM with heavy snowfall then travel disruption is possible tomorrow morning. Coastal waters should be up as with any coastal low but flooding only appears to meet minor criteria. Expect higher wind gusts along the shore between now and tomorrow. It is now time to live-cast. I’ll check back with you when the rain is changing to snow later this afternoon/evening. Be safe! JC