May 28: More Thunderstorms Expected

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 28, 2015 10:44

May 28: More Thunderstorms Expected

New Jersey is in for another warm and humid day with thunderstorm potential. Yesterday’s thunderstorms were primarily held NW of the turnpike. Everyone to the SE was subject to fizzle due to southerly flow and cooler stable air mass associated with stubborn high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean. Winds will be slightly more W/SW today than S/SW so any storm lines that push east could push further than yesterday and even reach the coast.

The fact that this week continues to be warm and stormy should be no surprise. With that said, I’ll slap on the classic “sunny and humid during the day + afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms” possibility with only localized instances of severe criteria (wind gusts > 58mph and/or 1-inch or greater-sized hail). In general, everyone is subject to at least a few passing showers or average-strength thunderstorms and only in now-casting will we know where the strongest storms hit. Let’s look at the latest high-res NAM guidance, specifically simulated precipitation intensity:

Between 4pm-5pm:

nas

Between 6PM-7PM:

nas

Between 8PM-9PM:

nas

In English: Today will be warm and humid inland again with the coast a bit cooler. Stiff SW winds should persist. As you can see, showers and thunderstorms should generally start in NWNJ in the afternoon and push SE through evening hours—clearing the coast and Cape May by 10PM. Nothing crazy is expected, just run-of-the-mill warm weather storms in New Jersey. As per usual, these storms will likely weaken as they near the coast but it DOES seem like at least something will make it this time. I’ll be watching. Be safe! JC

Model images used with permission from WeatherBell Analytics.

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 28, 2015 10:44

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