May 5: Thunderstorms Expected!
A slow moving frontal boundary will crawl across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic US today. Instability and shear are both marginal but enough to support thunderstorm development in the afternoon-evening hours. The most concentrated region modeled for storms appears to span from the Philadelphia metro area across Burlington and Ocean Counties—although I’d go with CNJ/SNJ in general. Here are some simulated radar returns off the latest high-resolution NAM indicating that the window of timing is ~6-11PM:
Between 8-9PM (red = heavy rain):
Between 10-11PM (red = heavy rain):
In English: Expect rain and storms this afternoon-evening, moreso for CNJ/SNJ than NNJ. 6-11PM is the best I can do given how slow the boundary will be moving. Expect heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning. Given the setup, lightning might be more of a periodic than frequent nature. By midnight everything should clear out to sea. More rain and storms are expected tomorrow. Be safe! JC