Mild Wet Conditions Expected (Nov 30-Dec 2)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 29, 2018 20:35

Mild Wet Conditions Expected (Nov 30-Dec 2)

Discussion: A very weak disturbance could produce light precipitation Friday PM. Some of NNJ, lets say ~I-80 and N, could see frozen precipitation. Not much total moisture is involved with this so little-to-no accumulation is expected. Let’s still use some caution Friday on the roads and allow a little extra time, especially if anything wintry falls during the PM rush hour. For much of the lower 2/3 of NJ, only rain showers are possible. We then see a break in precip Saturday morning but rain should return by late-afternoon/early-evening and last overnight into Sunday morning for all of NJ. Rainfall could be heavy at times and possibly produce flash flooding. By Sunday evening we should clear with a very mild end to the weekend. CNJ/SNJ should at least reach into the 60s on Sunday. After that we return to colder conditions with a very active pattern. I’m focused on two waves for now which could produce wintry precipitation for at least parts of NWNJ, possibly points further SE.  12/4 and 12/8 are the current surface signals. These look like the kind of systems where the snow/rain line sets up somewhere between I-80/I-287 and near I-95. Let’s see how the data evolves this weekend. It might be time for some snow maps Saturday (for Tuesday) if the signal holds.

Friday (Nov 30) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to upper-40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers possible during PM hours. NNJ elevations could see wintry precipitation from this but likely little-to-no accumulation.  Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Dec 1) high temperatures should reach into the 40s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain likely returning by late-afternoon/early-evening hours. Rainfall could be heavy at times and produce flash flooding so please use caution. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should stay in the 40s for most aside from NNJ elevations dipping into the upper-30s.

Sunday (Dec 2) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for many. NNJ elevations might hang in the 50s. Skies should start mostly cloudy with AM rain before improving throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.

An early look at next week indicates mild conditions spilling over into Monday but then the rest of the week looks colder with two snow chances possible. ~Tuesday (Dec 4) and ~Saturday (Dec 8). NWNJ would be favored over SENJ for snow. A typical snow/rain line would probably set up somewhere in-between likely along or NW of I-95. Let’s see how it all looks in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 29, 2018 20:35

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