Moderation ahead of Wintry Potential (Jan 26-28)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 25, 2018 13:26

Moderation ahead of Wintry Potential (Jan 26-28)

Discussion: From a 500mb perspective we should bounce between transient periods of above and below-average height anomalies from now until next weekend. This should bring us transient alternating periods of cold and moderation at the surface. This weekend looks relatively mild. The first part of next week looks colder. Another period of moderation for next Thursday-Friday is expected ahead of the Super Bowl Weekend cooldown that could feature snowfall. That’s still a ways away. The immediate period of focus is this Sunday through Tuesday. Frontal rainfall should push through from NW to SE. This should deliver a light rain event along and NW of I-95/NJTP earlier on Sunday morning likely ending by noon. The front however could then hang up as a low pressure disturbance rides the front. This should bring additional precipitation to those SE of I-95/NJTP Sunday night, possibly into Monday morning. The upper levels might be cold enough to start precipitation as snowfall but the lower-levels will likely be too warm for stickage thanks to warmer marine influence. Once precipitation ends for all of NJ by early Monday morning, another disturbance in the shape of an inverted trough could bring snowfall to New Jersey late-Monday night through Tuesday. Inverted trough snowfall would not only stick but also fall as high-ratio snowfall due to cold temperatures at all levels. If this potential is still modeled as-is on Saturday then it will be time for snow maps. Otherwise, inverted troughs rarely work out and we’ll just continue to monitor over the weekend. After that, we’re cold through Wednesday, moderate for Thursday-Friday and then back to cold for Super Bowl Weekend…which we’re also monitoring for a storm signal.

Friday (Jan 26) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Jan 27) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW, perhaps a little breezier out of the S/SW for SNJ/SENJ. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s.

Sunday (Jan 28) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with passing light-to-moderate rainfall NW of I-95/NJTP ending by noon if not earlier (under a quarter-inch). To the SE of I-95/NJTP, rainfall could be a bit heavier and last longer into Sunday evening, possibly even Monday morning. Rain could change to snowfall overnight-into-early morning at times for SNJ/SENJ but little-to-no accumulation is expected given the above, and in some cases well-above, freezing surface.

An early look at next week indicates a colder week overall. I’m watching an inverted trough that could possibly produce disruptive NJ snowfall late-Monday night into Tuesday. We should then stay cold and dry through about Wednesday. Another transient moderation in temperatures is expected for next Thursday-Friday (also dry) before the cold returns for Super Bowl Weekend…which also presents our first possible wintry signal of February. Let’s take another peek on Sunday. Otherwise everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr January 25, 2018 13:26

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