NJ Long Range Outlook – Looking at May

Lets harness the WeatherTrend360 proprietary weather algorithms for a look at May 2015. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the upper elevations of NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion. Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles and time table series.

Zone 1: Higher Elevations of NWNJ (Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

Zone 1 Discussion: This Friday appears to be the last day when high temperatures will only reach the 50s (also the last overnight period that flirts with lows in the 30s). We begin warming on Saturday. Starting Sunday and through the rest of May, Temperatures should climb into sustained 70s for high temperatures with only a few dips into the 60s as well as a few flirts with 80. Expect your average spring showers and thunderstorms from time to time with a rainier period in the May 20-24 period as illustrated. Otherwise there should be plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in May.

Zone 2: Interior Coastal Plain (Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land.

Zone 2 Discussion: This Friday appears to be the last day when high temperatures will only reach the 50s (also the last overnight period where lows dip into the lower-40s). We begin warming on Saturday. Starting Sunday and through the rest of May, Temperatures should climb into sustained 70s for high temperatures with a few days of 80+. Expect your average spring showers and thunderstorms from time to time with a rainier and stormier period in the May 20-24 period as illustrated. Otherwise there should be plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in May.

Zone 3: Coastal Regions (Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. This forms a micro-climate that only local inhabitants and frequent visitors are familiar with.

Zone 3 Discussion: This Friday appears to be the last day when high temperatures will only reach the 50s (also the last overnight period where lows dip into the lower-40s). We begin warming on Saturday. Starting Sunday and through the rest of May, Temperatures should climb into sustained 70s for high temperatures with a few days of 80+. Expect your average spring showers and thunderstorms from time to time with a rainier and stormier period in the May 20-24 period as illustrated. Otherwise there should be plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in May.

In English: A pretty average May regarding temperatures and precipitation. The second half of the month looks rainier than the first half but spring showers and thunderstorms (instability-driven) are always possible, especially in the afternoon.

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Enjoy the month of May and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™