Nov 9: Dual Arctic Outbreaks Detected!

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 9, 2014 15:12

Nov 9: Dual Arctic Outbreaks Detected!

After well below-average temperatures flood the region later this week, another (even colder) arctic air mass is modeled to move in after the weekend. These arctic outbreaks are the direct result of the massive storm that just affected the Bearing Sea. Pressure sunk to 924mb in the center of this storm breaking the all time record for the Bearing Sea. This storm is in the process of spinning up into the polar regions and will result in arctic air spilling southward over the central and eastern US. This model image represents surface level temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit early this coming Saturday morning. This is the Canadian shown with the Euro in close agreement:

canadian showing first cold outbreak in november in new jersey weather nj

After that, temperature moderate slightly as a potential low pressure system swings through in the November ~16-17 period. Whether it be from lake affect or a coastal graze, we could very well see our first snow in that period. I’ll be monitoring that closely. Then by mid-week, even colder surface level temperatures are expected. This is the same Canadian model as above showing surface level temperatures for next Wednesday morning. Again, the Euro is in high agreement. Notice the single digit values entering the Ohio Valley and below-freezing temperatures in the northern Central US:

canadian showing second arctic outbreak

Before the cold shows up later this week, temperatures should feel average to slightly above-average to start the week. It might not be until ~Thursday-Friday before the cold frontal boundary moves through. The first wave will like result in statewide highs in the low-to-mid 40s followed by overnight lows in the 20s. The second wave next week…highs in the 30s followed by lows in the upper teens/lower 20s.

Snowy Owl image taken by Steven Moore in Holgate, NJ (S. Long Beach Island). Even though the most likely reason for snowy owl presence in New Jersey is prey related, they have been natural forecasters of approaching arctic frontal boundaries in recent years. With such cold air on the way, please make sure you’re prepared to dress accordingly. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr November 9, 2014 15:12

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