Oct 27: Rain and Wind Approaching
Radar indicates a large shield of precipitation moving NE towards New Jersey and surrounding areas:
I anticipate this to reach our area overnight and last for most of tomorrow. The latest short-range model guidance indicates between .75 and 2 inches of total rainfall by Thursday morning. Only extremely localized amounts of 2+ inches are likely. We wont know where that will be (if it happens) until any convective banding forms during mesoscale observations. Regardless, most of Wednesday should see washout conditions with a few short-lived breaks in precipitation throughout the day. While this rainfall is much needed, it unfortunately will have just a marginal impact on our drought situation.
Winds could gust as high as 30-40mph at times so make sure any outdoor Halloween decorations are secured. Wind direction should start out of the S/SW tonight and finish out of the W/NW tomorrow evening. There’s also the chance for a few embedded thunderstorms tomorrow. Such thunderstorm activity will likely only reach strong criteria, not severe but let’s leave severe on the table as a small isolated possibility. This really just seems to me like a run-of-the-mill October rain and wind event. It just happens to be irregular, maybe odd is a better word, having formed from some of Hurricane Patricia’s remnant energy.
The good news? This system should clear out by Thursday afternoon. This will allow for a dry and mostly sunny Friday-Saturday with seasonably average temperatures. Sunday looks a little unsettled but let’s revisit that. I’ll have the fully detailed weekend outlook posted on Thursday. Be safe! JC