Sept 17: Initial Weather Forecast for Hobie 16 Championships

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 5, 2014 23:05

Sept 17: Initial Weather Forecast for Hobie 16 Championships

The September 21-26 period in the Delaware Bay/Lewes Yacht Club region is starting to come into focus on long range weather model guidance. The proprietary algorithms of weathertrends360 indicate just a small chance of light rain showers Monday into Tuesday but aside from that, a decent week for sailing. Temperatures should be cooler than average once the front moves through. Here’s a 30-day projected graph of temperatures and general conditions:

weathertrends360 analysis for Lewes, Delaware

Long range global operational guidance from the ECMWF reflects the light rain idea with an almost dry frontal passage on Monday. An area of weak low pressure will be positioned a few hundred miles ESE of the Delmarva Peninsula which could aid the showers ahead of the front. That places the Delaware Bay in the NW quadrant of the low pressure systems cyclonic flow. Winds would then be 14-18 knots out of the N/NE as indicated by this WeatherBell model image:

european model showing weak coastal low pressure disturbance

Tuesday through Friday remain dominated by anti-cyclonic high pressure flow across the region. Winds should be light at 5-10 knots off the ocean as onshore flow establishes itself to our north. Increased clouds are always a possibility with an easterly component but there should still be plenty of sun. Here’s another model image from WeatherBell showing high pressure in control for Thursday, September 25:

european model shows high pressure in control

One thing’s for sure…we’re in for a nice stretch of beautiful weather. We should moderate in temperatures this weekend before dropping below average after the nuisance frontal passage Monday into Tuesday. There’s nothing else showing on model guidance but fair weather and light winds under the influence of more high pressure. I’ll continue to tweak this forecast as the race approaches. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 5, 2014 23:05

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