Sept 23: Weekend Rain Detected

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 23, 2015 21:02

Sept 23: Weekend Rain Detected

A weak coastal low pressure disturbance will be the main driver of possible rain and nuisance conditions this weekend. The rain could begin as early as Saturday afternoon/evening and last through Monday evening. High pressure to the north will block the system, forcing it to crawl along the coast from OBX to the benchmark (40N/70W) area, and be the reason for such a long-duration event. To be crystal clear, NNJ/NWNJ has the least chance of seeing rainfall and SNJ/SENJ has the best chance. Everyone in-between could go either way. The northern fringe of the systems precipitation shield should cut right through New Jersey, making the weather just fine to the N/NW of that line and full of nuisance to the S/SE. Let’s look at some supporting 850mb model guidance from the GFS:

Rainfall between 2PM and 8PM on Saturday:

gfs

Rainfall between 2AM and 8AM on Sunday:

gfs

Rainfall between 8PM Sunday and 2AM on Monday:

gfs

Total rainfall through 8PM Monday:

gfs

The bottom line: This will be an on-and-off rainfall situation Saturday PM-Monday PM with SENJ seeing the most and NWNJ seeing the least. We should have nice weather until then and gorgeous weather afterwards once everything clears out on Monday. I’ll have more detail and specifics for you when I make the weekend outlook tomorrow evening. Be safe! JC

Model images used with permission from WeatherBell Analytics.

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 23, 2015 21:02

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