Still watching Sunday rain (July 20)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 18, 2014 11:35

Still watching Sunday rain (July 20)

Today and tomorrow will continue to feature weather to die for. Highs will max out in the lower 80s with lows ranging from 58-64 (NWNJ-SENJ) under a mixed bag of mostly sun and clouds. I’m still monitoring Sunday for a potential low-impact event SE of the I-95 corridor. The GFS continues to show weak low pressure paralleling the coast and interacting with high pressure over Bermuda. This could possibly bring rain to the shore early Sunday morning and throughout the day. The good news is that impacts have trended lighter and further SE than yesterday’s GFS solution. This slide is for 2AM Sunday morning. To me this looks like overcast skies/possible sprinkles and only along coastal/SENJ areas.

Weathern NJ GFS

Now that we’re within 48 hours, shorter range models such as the NAM are starting to come into range. The NAM is spelling out a complete miss out to sea with a continuation of the current weather into next week. Here’s what the NAM says for 5AM Sunday morning:

Weather NJ NAM

The European model sides with the NAM for an out to sea solution under the assumption that the trough will keep the flow of moisture in check with drier air. The weak low pressure disturbance is still there just with it’s precipitation shield hindered in the NW quadrant. I think I’m starting to lean towards this solution as well. I have to assign a 25% chance of overcast skies with maybe even a sprinkle but that leaves a 75% chance for a beautiful day on Sunday. Here’s for hoping the latter verifies! Be safe and enjoy the rest of your weekend! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 18, 2014 11:35

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