Warm and Sunny before Jose Influence (Sept 16-17)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 15, 2017 14:25

Warm and Sunny before Jose Influence (Sept 16-17)

Weekend Discussion: Between high pressure moving across Maine/Nova Scotia and Jose moving up the coast, a tight wind gradient should develop by the end of the weekend. For Saturday and Sunday we’re likely just looking at light winds out of the E/NE and a general swampy (humid) upper-70s/lower-80s environment. Most areas should stay sunny and rain free however let’s allow a super small chance of localized instability-driven pop-up showers. The surface is warm and moist under colder air aloft (associated with remnant upper-level energy from Irma). Just want to state that but otherwise, the weekend looks warm and sunny for most.

Saturday (Sept 16) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should me partly sunny with a humid feel. A small chance of isolated showers are possible mainly along and NW of I-95/NJTP during late-afternoon/early-evening hours. Areas SE have an even lesser chance due to marine influence. Most however should see a warm and sunny day. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide. Immediate coastal areas might struggle to just dip below 70.

Sunday (Sept 17) high temperatures should again reach the upper-70s/lower-80s with a muggy feel. Skies should be partly sunny with again just a micro-chance of isolated pop=up showers. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

An early look at next week (in English) indicates potentially disruptive conditions from Jose’s western side (mainly for coastal areas). For Monday through Tuesday, and possibly into early Wednesday AM, we’re looking at sustained winds of 20-30mph with higher gusts possible. Wind direction should gradually rock from E/NE to NE to N/NE around Jose’s S to N track off the E US.  I’m still leaning towards an offshore miss of Jose’s inner core winds. Therefore rainfall and winds could be noticeable but likely manageable. OBX and Cape Cod are possibly on the hook for more-disruptive rain and winds than NJ. With onshore flow persisting from this weekend through Tuesday (ramping up for Mon-Tues), at least 3-4 high tides are subject to minor-to-moderate coastal flooding. Also we have a new moon on Wednesday (Sept. 20). Rainfall would form a trifecta for flooding but as of now, I’m not seeing enough rainfall to be concerned. There could be periods of drenching tropical-downpours from outer bands of Jose but most of NJ, especially ENJ, would likely be subject to 2 inches of rainfall or less. I’m finding a hard time justifying measurable rainfall W of the Delaware River and there’s a chance most rainfall could still stay offshore completely aside from a few raw sprinkes. This is where I’ve been leaning towards over the past few days and this is where I’m at now. There is no major hurricane threat to New Jersey. Monday night through Wednesday morning might get disruptive but with manageable impacts. Tropical storm force/Nor’easter force conditions are likely the worst case scenario for Mon PM-Wed AM with a reasonable and rational expectation of slightly lesser conditions than that.  Lee and Maria are about to form in the Atlantic Ocean. Lee will likely form first in the E Atlantic and fizzle out. Maria should form second and possibly threaten the Caribbean and beyond. You know I’ll be tracking. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 15, 2017 14:25

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