Warm Unsettled Conditions Expected (Oct 13-15)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 12, 2017 20:19

Warm Unsettled Conditions Expected (Oct 13-15)

A few quick programming notes:

1) I’m filling in at the Press of Atlantic City through Tuesday.
2) The Weather NJ mobile app has been disabled and discontinued. A new and improved mobile app is in the works with an estimated launch date of November 1.
3) I’ll be participating in Operation Halloween again this October 27-28. Check out the event link and come on by if you like scary stuff that benefits charitable causes.
4) I’ll be speaking at Long Beach Island Foundation of the Arts and Sciences on Saturday, November 11. Topics will include meteorology 101, the Jersey Shore micro-climate, and how to best utilize LBIF’s new weather station.

Discussion: The upper level jet stream will be far to our north this weekend. A large and strong upper area of high pressure/ridge, centered over Louisiana, will re-enforce the back side of this jet positioning through about Sunday. Throughout that time (this weekend) we can expect a warm and muggy feel (for October). Given the remnants of a weak OBX coastal surface disturbance, periods of rainfall are possible Friday-Saturday. Sunday looks like the warmest and sunniest day with close proximity to the approaching cold front. SW winds should pick up the closer the front gets and that’s why I think Sunday should be the warmer day of the weekend. More rainfall is likely with the frontal passage Sunday night into early Monday morning. By mid-to-late Monday morning the jet stream should be to our S and E, as another transient trough swings through. This should cool the region down considerably with Monday and Tuesday likely the coolest days. I could see temperatures moderating some by mid-to-late next week but not as warm as recent times. By the end of October we should see a few potent troughs of cold air swing through.

Friday (Oct 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s statewide…closer to 70 along the immediate coast due to marine influence. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few showers around. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the lower 60s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 50s.

Saturday (Oct 14) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most.  Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy which could hold highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. More rain showers are possible during the day but skies are expected to clear heading into overnight hours. Winds should remain light out of the east. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Sunday (Oct 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for many with low-80s not out of the questions. Skies should be partly sunny with a muggy feel for most of the day. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s and 50s as a cold front pushes through. Evening/overnight rain is possible along and just ahead of the cold front. Monday morning however should start cool and crisp with quickly drying surfaces.

An early look at next week indicates a chillier start with the Sunday night-Monday morning cold front through the region. We’re talking highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s with abundant daytime sunshine. Since we’ll be approaching a Thursday (Oct 19) new moon, conditions for stargazing should be favorable.

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 12, 2017 20:19

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