Warmer Weather Expected (April 28-30)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 27, 2017 13:14

Warmer Weather Expected (April 28-30)

The warmth is here (less coastal areas) but a few minor nuisances are possible throughout the weekend. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: We’re currently under the influence of S flow ahead of a fizzling cold front. That should keep today (Thursday) warm with a small chance of showers overnight and early tomorrow with the frontal passage. Not seeing significant rainfall along the front and since it’s on it’s last leg, I don’t expect much cooling behind it either. A linear segment of weak lifting by the time it rolls through NJ. Friday and Saturday should be warmer than Sunday. While I’m not seeing any widespread synoptic rainfall, isolated-to-scattered instances of pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible both Friday and Saturday. They will likely be driven by instability and diurnal heating. So perhaps most of the day is nice but a line of storms provides 1-2 hours of disruption during afternoon-evening hours—kind of thing. Don’t get me wrong…most should see dry daytime hours but only some could get caught up in a brief period of rain/thunderstorms. Sunday should be cooler due to onshore flow associated with the anti-cyclonic nature of high pressure to our NE. Therefore I expect decent cloud coverage with “some” sun possibly poking through. The NE high should then move out as a Bermuda high establishes and provides more warmth to start next week. I’m currently monitoring a frontal passage on Monday that could bring some brief rainfall and possibly thunderstorms. I’ll touch more on this as we approach closer.

Friday (April 27) high temperatures should reach into the 80s away from the ocean and into the 70s along coastal regions. Skies could start out cloudy during AM hours, after any scattered/light overnight showers, but should eventually become partly sunny by afternoon. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to fall below 60 with the exception of NNJ elevations as rain and thunderstorms possibly move through.

Saturday (April 29) should be the warmest day of the weekend. Areas away from the ocean, especially interior CNJ/SNJ, should easily reach into the mid 80s. 90 might be a bit aggressive to forecast but no reason why we can’t flirt with it. Mid-80s at least though. Even coastal areas should warm into the mid-70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for most of the day. Another line of thunderstorms could roll through during afternoon-evening hours. I’ll be monitoring that on radar and it would likely be of short duration when compared to the rest of the day. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 50s statewide with a small chance of isolated-to-scattered showers possible mainly for NNJ/CNJ.

Sunday (April 30) high temperatures should reach into the 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks possible. Should more sun make it through then the entire state could warm into the 70s but for now we have to at least consider the onshore flow cloud component cutting off solar surface heating. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide.

An early look at next week indicates a warmer Monday but with a frontal passage of rain and possibly thunderstorms towards afternoon-evening hours. Tuesday through Thursday looks dry and comfortable (temperature-wise). Right now the models are indicating a possible widespread synoptic rainfall event for Friday. Let’s revisit this in a few days. Otherwise have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 27, 2017 13:14

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