Cool, Rainy and Foggy

Discussion: Real quick, the winds have subsided, and we’ll drop to a range of 40-50 across NJ tonight/overnight (Monday night) with low humidity. Tuesday should be the last pleasant day with nice conditions for a while. A series of lower geopotential heights (several upper lows) are expected to push through NJ from W to E between Wednesday and next Tuesday. This should produce a rather gloomy overall picture of cooler temperatures and clouds/rain. It’s suboptimal for traditional Memorial Day Weekend activities but I’ve seen it look worse. The heaviest rain of the period surrounds the coastal low activity Wednesday into Thursday morning. This should be the period of heaviest rainfall, strongest embedded thunderstorms and any flooding (coastal or flash) from such. Coastal flooding doesn’t look too bad, but we WILL have a period of stiff E/SE winds off the ocean with heavy rainfall. By Thursday afternoon/evening, NJ will be on the back side of the departing coastal low activity. All remaining rainfall from that point into the weekend should be spotty stuff associated with the upper lows. Each day, a little less pissy through Saturday. Sunday-Monday looks rain-free but still cloudy and cool. I would expect fog issues between Tuesday night and Friday morning with the expected clashing of air masses surrounding the coastal and upper low interactions and ocean temps (now mid-50s)/etc. My advice from this range would be to lean Sunday-Monday for outdoor plans. Friday and Saturday are not washouts but some will hit the lottery with spotty showers unlike Sunday-Monday. Definitely below-average temperatures through the entire weekend. It could feel nice in the peak afternoon but otherwise a hoodies and pants kind of weekend.  

Forecast

Tuesday (May 20) high temperatures should range from 65-70 for most NJ locations with interior CNJ/SNJ seeing the warmest temps (75 not off the table). Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-55 range with a few showers approaching by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday (May 21) high temperatures should struggle to escape the upper-50s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with periods of widespread rainfall likely, moderate to heavy at times. Winds should be light to breezy out of the E/SE, windiest along the ECNJ and SENJ coasts. Can’t rule out both flash flooding from concentrated areas of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding around high tide from surge. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to coast as rain continues into Thursday.

Thursday (May 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most of NJ away from the ocean. Coasties could pop into the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should remain mostly cloudy as periods of lighter rain/drizzle/fog are likely. Winds should be breezy out of the N. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 NNJ to SNJ as conditions improve under overcast skies.

Friday (May 23) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. NNJ and some of CNJ still unsettled with clouds and spotty showers possible. SNJ more settled with warmer temperatures and a better chance to stay dry (low non-zero chance of iso showers). Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 45-53 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at Memorial Day Weekend (May 24-26) indicates below average temperatures. Statewide highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s. Saturday looks like the last day for spotty showers despite a mostly cloudy but dry environment Sunday-Monday. So, Friday-Saturday: most luck out with spotty showers possible. Sunday-Monday: cloudy but dry. All days of the weekend about 10-15 degrees cooler than you’d like to see for MDW. I’ll have a detailed extended weekend outlook posted this Thursday. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC