Improvement

Discussion: A rather zonal look at 250mb wind analysis regarding the upper jet. 500mb heights suggests an upper-low dominating this weekend but gradually giving way to nicer conditions with an approaching ridge for next week. That’s what will get us back to daily highs in the 70s. But for this weekend, it will be hard to crack 70 for the first part. Friday and Saturday should feel amazing overall with most staying dry. You just can’t rule out an isolated shower or even iso boomer given the lower heights (less altitude for moisture to rise and condense into rain). Sunday and Monday look dry as the backside of the upper low brings NW flow into the equation. W/SW surface winds however will make Sunday and Monday a little warmer than today (Friday) and Saturday. Still not ideal beach weather…likely more of a hoodie/jeans kind of weekend especially during dark hours. Next week looks unsettled but under higher heights…so lower-70s but with rain and storms possible.

Forecast

Friday (May 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Most spots should be okay but cannot rule out isolated showers here and there. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (May 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. A carbon copy of Friday so cannot rule out spotty showers despite most areas staying dry. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (May 25) high temperatures should reach the 65-70 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 NNJ to SNJ.

Monday (May 26 – Memorial Day) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most NJ locations, maybe a bit into the 70s away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (May 27-30) indicates high temps in the 68-75 range with more unsettled conditions likely meaning several rainy/stormy periods. Let’s take a closer look after the weekend. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC