Summer Conditions Return

Discussion: The upper-jet, observed at 250mb, should stay N of NJ for most of the foreseeable future outside of a small dip this Thursday-Friday. That jives with 500mb heights analysis of the bottom of an expected trough grazing through NJ in the same time frame (Thursday-Friday AM). As the trough approaches (SW flow), heat and humidity should come to a head on Thursday with a period of showers and thunderstorms breaking the pattern for a much better feeling Friday under the back of the trough (NW flow). Things then reset for another heat wave next week. Today (Monday) we’re still stuck in this gloomy chilly pattern that has dominated the last few weeks/weekends. The drought has been busted which is great! But it’s now time to return to a warmer and sunnier pattern and right in time for the summer solstice. At least NJ breaks into the 70s Tuesday despite clouds, rain and embedded thunderstorms still lingering through Tuesday night. Wednesday should be the next day with sun however showers and storm chances persist since we’ll be behind a new warm front (in a warm sector). This will build heat and humidity into Thursday before a cold front, attached to a low in SE Canada, pushes through and clears the humidity out for Friday into the weekend. The weekend actually looks good. I don’t see any region-wide rainmakers for Saturday or Sunday. But I do see typical summery conditions this weekend meaning highs into the 80s, returning humidity, and possible isolated pop-ups. You can’t rule them out on any sunny and humid day unless there’s a strong high overhead. And that won’t be until the following week when temperatures are expected to push even hotter into the 90s. In summary, if you are familiar with the Norwegian Cyclone Model, a warm front Tuesday-Wednesday, warm sector Wednesday-Thursday, a cold front Thursday-Friday AM, and relief Friday-Sunday as humidity slowly builds back by next Sunday/Monday.

Forecast

Monday (June 16) high temperatures should max in the low-to-mid 60s. A chilly humid feel lingers. Skies are mostly cloudy as areas of rain approach from the W for evening/overnight hours. Winds should remain light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should stay just above 60 statewide.

Tuesday (June 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel. Warmer than the last few days but still gloomy and muggy. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should stay above 65 statewide with showers and thunderstorms possible.

Wednesday (June 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should hover near-70 statewide. Eww.

Thursday (June 19) high temperatures should reach 85 statewide (a good bet). I expect areas away from the ocean and along I-95 to break 90. Elevated humidity will produce heat indices well into the 90s, possibly 100. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and building cumulus clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are possible likely locally/isolated. The day will be storm fuel though so severe is possible. Look for the afternoon sea breeze front to spark additional cells. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 NNJ to SNJ as skies clear but humidity lingers.

Friday (June 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Maybe a few warmer spots push into upper-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with noticeably less humidity. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ as relief continues into the weekend.

An early look at the weekend (June 21-22) indicates the first weekend in a while without an expected synoptic rainmaker. It looks summery though…meaning most, possibly all, of the weekend is warm (80s), humid and rain free. However, you can’t rule out isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms between afternoon/evening hours. But no widespread rain is showing as of now. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC