The Heat is On

Discussion: In the words of the late Glenn Frey, “The Heat is On!” De na NA nana da NAna NAna! The upper jet, observed at 250mb, should stay well to the N of NJ this week. From 500mb analysis, a ridge will center and park over ~TN/KY which puts NJ on the NE side of the ridge. This means W/NW flow for NJ and ridiculous heat and humidity being sucked up into the ridge from the S/SW. The lower-level surface high pressure will center over NJ or just offshore for the first few days of this week. This means extreme suppression of rain/storm formation due to sinking air, the expanded troposphere, and the inability of surface air to rise within a widespread hot environment. So with that said, the hotter days of Monday and Tuesday look rain-free. The ridge will begin to break down Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and produce a “not as hot” Wednesday-Thursday. This is when I expect rain/storms to re-enter the forecast mostly from an area of convergence spanning from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic US. This area/span should then slowly sink southward Thursday-Friday, providing more showers and thunderstorms for NJ. By Saturday, the slowly sinking boundary should be well to the S of NJ producing a less hot weekend in the 80s. As of right now, the weekend looks free of any synoptic or frontal rain-makers however isolated pop-ups are always possible, especially afternoon-evening hours when sparked by sea breeze fronts. So hot/humid and rain-free Monday-Tuesday, unsettled/rainy/stormy Wednesday PM-Friday PM (will update accordingly), then mostly dry for the weekend.

A special note to stay as cool and dry as your situation allows. I’m down to earth and realize that many professions require outdoor work. Just don’t push it regarding drinking enough water and resting in shade whenever you can, especially today (Monday) through Wednesday. Know the signs of heat exhaustion vs heat stroke. Take care of yourself!

Forecast

Monday (June 23) high temperatures should max out in the mid-to-upper 90s with heat indices well above 100 and in some cases 110 thanks to elevated humidity. Sea breeze front could chill coasties down to lower-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with typical humid haze. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide and in some cases above 75.

Tuesday (June 24) high temperatures should break 90 for all of NJ and possibly 100 away from the ocean along the I-95/NJTP corridor. Coasties maybe down to 85 with sea breeze. Skies should be mostly sunny and hazy with absurd humidity producing heat indices of 105-110 again. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should stay above 70 again statewide.

Wednesday (June 25) high temperatures should again break 90 for most of NJ, constituting a solid heat wave. Coasties likely held to 78-84 range. Skies should start mostly sunny but showers and thunderstorms are possible for afternoon-evening hours. Severe criteria and flash flooding from downpours are on the table with any storm cells. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should once again stay above 70 statewide.

Thursday (June 26) high temperatures should reach the 85-90 range (should feel great after Mon-Wed lol). Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should remain light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall below 70 for the first time since Sunday morning but showers and thunderstorm chances should continue into Friday morning.

Friday (June 27) high temperatures should only max in the mid-to-upper 70s. Quite a contrast from earlier in the week. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel. Expect scattered showers and some rolling thunder from embedded thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 NNJ to SNJ as showers and thunderstorms remain possible into early Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend (June 28-29) looks pretty good considering. Highs should max in the mid-80s for most NJ locations with lows in the 65-68 range. Should feel more seasonably average. Mostly sunny starts to the days, clouds increasing from late-morning through afternoon, and isolated showers/boomers late-afternoon through evening (very isolated most miss out). Long-range signals suggest we sort of stay that way (mid-80 highs, mit-to-upper 60 lows) through the July 4^th weekend. Not seeing the oppressive heat/humidity returning before then. Let’s see how it all looks in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC