Slightly Unsettled but Doable

Discussion: For the “wake me up when it snows” crowd, we’ve lost about 14 minutes since peak June daylight as we begin our initial descent towards the colder months. In the meantime, summer rages on with warm temps, relentless humidity, and above-average precipitation. No shortage of tropical-feeling airmass other than the nice-feeling July 4-5 period of transient low humidity. Dew point temperatures have been above 70 for most of the time. Don’t get me wrong, I love summertime. But as I grow older and get on the other side of July 4th, I find myself looking forward to the first “taste of fall” cold front that typically comes by late-July/early-August…a full clear-out of rain and humidity followed by dew points in the 50s…comfortable to be outside during the day and then to open windows up at night if you got em. All in due time. For this weekend, the upper levels are rather nonconclusive with mostly a zonal flow pattern leaning slightly positive for heights. No major synoptic storm systems or mesoscale thunderstorm outbreaks expected. Just a warm and humid setup with most hours of the day rain-free but 5-15 minute downpours/rumbles possible in an isolated pop-up manner. Most could luck out with a rain-free weekend. However, a few spots should fall subject to random pop-ups that can’t be taken off the table in such a tropical airmass. It looks like a cold front will push through PA Sunday afternoon/evening and then through NJ between late Sunday night and early Tuesday morning. A very slow-moving front and therefore lots of lifting to generate more rain and storms. I’m suspicious of how far to the SE of NJ the cold front will push as it will be met by S flow pushing back against it from the Bermuda high return flow. I suspect it could become stationary just offshore keeping rain/storm chances alive next week with very little relief post-cold front passage. Will monitor as we closer approach.

Forecast

Friday (July 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean and closer to 80 along the coast. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun and with a very humid feel. Isolated pop-up showers are likely, possibly some lightning but nothing crazy like the last few days. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.

Saturday (July 12) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most NJ areas. Coastal areas are looking at 80-85. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a very humid feel. Can’t rule out more isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should again fall to near-70 statewide.                                                           

Sunday (July 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean and closer to 80 for the coast. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds as elevated humidity continues. The same isolated pop-up shower and thunderstorm caveat applies for most of the day. A rainier/stormier situation is expected to push in Sunday night into Monday. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide.

An early look at next week (July 14-18) indicates a mostly cloudy/rainy/stormy Monday with some residual showers into at least Tuesday morning. Tuesday PM through about Thursday should give us a break from the rain but should remain warm and humid. The weekend then looks similar to this weekend. Warm, humid and slightly unsettled. Most luck out and miss isolated activity. A few don’t. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC