A Mostly Great Week

Discussion: Though the upper pattern appears more meridional than zonal at times, there are no anomalous geopotential heights in either direction the next 7 days or so. At this surface, these next 7 days looked like aces all the way through Sunday of this weekend. However, there’s been one little wrench thrown into the mix for Wednesday-ish and that is a weak coastal low passing by just offshore. This has trended in over the last 24 hours or so of model guidance. Impacts from this coastal should start Tuesday with some rougher surf and rip currents. Impacts would peak Wednesday in the form of clouds and showers from the outer bands of the coastal low. I think clouds are a good bet however it is very uncertain how far inland the rain could reach (immediate coast only or all the way to the Delaware River (all of NJ). In either case, it would be run-of-mill rain and breeze we’ve seen many times before. The heaviest rain and highest winds would stay offshore closer to the coastal storm’s center. Conditions would then improve Wednesday night as we transition quickly back to the cool/dry pattern for Thursday through the weekend. So other than Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, this week looks immaculate with slightly below-average temperatures, low humidity, pleasant-feeling warm days and cool nights. Invest 91L has fizzled out before reaching the Lesser Antilles so we’re back to a very non-active tropical basin in the Atlantic Ocean. I’ll be watching should anything pop up.

Forecast

Monday (Sept 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the N for most but breezy at times out of the NE along the immediate coast—which could produce heavier surf and rip currents. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range for much of NJ with areas closer to the coast staying above 50 and immediate coasts above 55.

Tuesday (Sept 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny, possibly a few clouds around especially near the coasts. Humidity should stay low for a pleasant feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE for most but possibly gusty at times for coastal areas with continued interest in heavy surf and rip currents. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-65 NNJ to SJ range with coastal areas subject to clouds and showers from an offshore storm.

Wednesday (Sept 10) high temperatures should reach near or just above 70 statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers around from the offshore storm. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 NNJ to SNJ as conditions clear and improve.

Thursday (Sept 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s with a dry feel. Some interior CNJ/SNJ locations could break just over 80…but again with low humidity. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Sept 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s with a pleasant feel. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range again NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (Sept 13-14) indicates great conditions hanging on. For Saturday and Sunday I’m seeing mostly clear highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s with low humidity. Let’s confirm that’s the case in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC