Aces!

Discussion: A mostly zonal upper-jet, slightly bucked at times, will flow over the E US for the next 7-10 days. No big troughs or ridges which should keep our region temperate with respect to the time of year. On average, we’re looking at highs in the 70s and lows in the 45-60 range at the surface. This should be the common theme for the next 7-10 days with two anomalies to discuss. One is today and the other is mid-week next week. Today is worth for discussion because the atmosphere allowed a warmer and more humid than average outcome to occur before the anticipated dry cold front later tonight. Many have reached into the mid-80s with dews above 60…not unbearable but kind of annoying if you’re looking for the better-feeling early fall stuff. Regardless, a dry cold front is approaching and will push through with the NW winds this evening, dropping everyone back into a very comfortable air mass by Saturday morning. The weekend is then aces with low humidity and comfortable temperatures. I expect temps to rebound a little warmer starting Tuesday leading into another rain chance Wednesday. It looks like that cold front could push some rain across NJ on Wednesday before temps fall even cooler behind that for Thursday into next weekend. The tropics remain quiet. Tropical Storm Gabrielle is out there (initially Invest 92L->TD07) but looks to stay well out to sea passing just E of Bermuda towards the end of this weekend/Monday AM. About the only minor fringe impacts NJ could see are enhanced surf and rip currents from long-range radiative swell pushing W against the E US coast. No rain or wind from the system. Some initial data is suggesting another frontal rain system possibly Fri-Sat but that’s a little outside of my comfort zone for now.

Forecast

Friday (Sept 19) high temperatures are maxing in the mid-80s for much of NJ with NNJ elevations and immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas hung in the 75-80 range. Humidity is ranging from comfortable to slightly sticky from NNJ to SNJ with all of NJ seeing either an actual temperature or heat index above 80. A warm September day! Winds are light out of the NW and that will continue overnight as a dry cold front drops overnight lows to the 45-59 range for most of NJ. Areas closer to the coast should hang in the 60-65 range.

Saturday (Sept 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s with a pleasant feel (low humidity). Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall (quickly around/just after sundown) into the 40-55 range for most of NJ (NNJ to SNJ) with immediate coastal areas hanging in the 55-60 range. A crisp September night!

Sunday (Sept 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should have just a few more friendly clouds than Saturday but still a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-60 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Sept 22-26) indicates more highs in the 70s with cooler nights. A few warmer locations near I-95 could tap 80 again. For the third week in a row, we could see mid-week rain event. Not from a coastal this time but from a traditional frontal system out of our W/NW. We could sure use it. So expect a warmer and more humid spike midweek again. Temps should then take a noticeable dive south again for next weekend and quickly return us to the fall feel we’ll have from today through at least Monday. I am casually watching another rain chance Friday into early Saturday morning but let’s revisit in a few days when we’re within a more confident range. Tropics remain quiet for NJ/E US interests outside of Tropical Storm Gabrielle passing way out to sea. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC