Rainy Humid Pattern Detected

Discussion: An unsettled period is expected between this Tuesday and Saturday. I know that’s a longer stretch than what we’ve been used to but honestly, we could use the rain. Models are suggesting about 1-2 inches total throughout that period which will help the situation. Expect warmer temperatures in this period with humid conditions…annoying but again, we need the rain. As of now a cold front is expected to push it all out on Saturday to make for a nice Saturday night into Sunday. Some initial longer-range model guidance, however, suggests unsettled conditions returning early next week. Could it be the start of a rainy October pattern? Sure, it could. But for now we at least know we’re warm, cloudy, humid and wet from Tuesday night through Saturday. It will not rain that entire time but will stay cloudy and humid. Rain will be on and off with thunderstorms possible at times. The upper levels appear unremarkable and mundane. All of this rain will be attributed to a slow-moving frontal boundary pushing against Bermuda high return flow, creating the prolonged period of surface convergence.

Forecast

Monday (Sept 22) high temperatures are maxing in the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds with a pleasant feel. Winds should remain light out of the SE. Gabrielle is out there in the Atlantic Ocean, far from delivering any rain or wind to NJ but capable of roughing up the surf/enhancing rip currents along the coast. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Sept 23) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most NJ locations. Coastal areas should max in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should start mixed with noticeably increasing humidity. Showers and thunderstorms are possible afternoon-forward but will mostly likely hold off until at least sundown. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range as rain and thunderstorms persist in a humid environment.

Wednesday (Sept 24) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should remain unsettled and humid with more rain likely and a lesser chance of thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60s statewide with more rain possible.

Thursday (Sept 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy and humid with more rain and thunderstorms likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-70 range with a few showers around.

Friday (Sept 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy and humid with a few remnant showers around. Winds should switch to the W/NW and then NW by evening. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range with humidity starting to gradually dissipate.  

An early look at the weekend (Sept 27-28) indicates highs in the 70s and lows in the upper-40s/50s. Saturday looks like the last day on the humid side with Sunday more pleasant feeling. Rain should wrap up Saturday morning.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC