Boss Cold Front Expected

Discussion: Fall is going to finally settle in this week. We have two more days, Monday and Tuesday, where it will be slightly warmer and more humid than most would like to see this time of year. A boss cold front will then push through and greatly change the look and feel from Wednesday and forward. NNJ might start whiffing this change earlier on Tuesday but it will be through all of NJ by Wednesday morning. This will be made possible by the strong ridge in the upper levels over Canada and a strong/broad area of high pressure at the lower levels tracking from Canada down into the NorthEast US. These cold forces out of the N will also prevent Imelda from coming up the coast towards NJ. Humberto is still expected to miss Bermuda just to Bermuda’s W but not without producing at least fringe impacts to Bermuda. Imelda is now expected to encounter the block and veer off also towards Bermuda. Bermuda could see a close miss from Humberto on Tuesday and then a close pass from Imelda on Wednesday. But either way, NJ is clear from either storm and the main headline for NJ this week is the boss cold front triggering all the fall things. Seriously, get the pants, long sleeves and hoodies out for Wednesday-forward. The stronger mid-week winds will make it feel even colder. I don’t see any further tropical systems once Imelda departs in Humberto’s wake, at least in the near future but you know I’m always watching.

Forecast

Monday (Sept 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with NNJ a little clearer and SNJ a little cloudier. Same goes for humidity…a little drier in NNJ and danker in SNJ. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from 50-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (Sept 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Coastal areas are subject to hazardous rip currents and enhanced surf. Winds should be light out of the N/NE, perhaps breezy at times along the coast. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Oct 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for much of NJ. Interior warmer locations of CNJ/SNJ could push just over 70. A completely different feel though with mostly sunny skies and windy conditions out of the N/NE. Winds could gust 20-30mph, especially along the coast. Overnight lows should fall to the lower-40s for much of NJ with coastal areas staying just above 50.

Thursday (Oct 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and flat-bottom wind clouds. Again, a much different feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows could dip into the upper-30s for NNJ elevations and interior SNJ Pine Barrens, likely 40s for most of NJ and closer to 50 right along the coast.

Friday (Oct 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Some spots might reach into the lower-70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should switch to either tranquil or light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (Oct 4-5) indicates great conditions as temperatures moderate slightly warmer. Saturday looks like mid-70s and Sunday mid-to-upper 70s maybe 80 in a few spots. Low humidity should produce a pleasant feel. Overnight lows should dip into the 40s/50s. As of now the weekend looks dry. No tropical threats on the near-future horizon for NJ or EC interests. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC