Warmer but Still Beautiful

Discussion: Another chilly night tonight (Thursday) as overnight temps fall into the 40s for most of NJ. Coasties closer to 50 and NNJ elevations with the best chance to dip slightly below 40. Our boss cold front came through and we’re now enjoying some early-October magic of below-average temps and very dry dew points (low humidity). We’re going to moderate this weekend and then reach above-average temps with higher humidity into next week and here’s why. It was a strong Canadian ridge with a broad lower-level area of high pressure that saved the E US coast from the tropical storms this past week. The stronger energy from the offshore storms helped beef up the strength of the high pressure. As we know, high pressure is a massive system of air rotating anti-cyclonically (clockwise) that drifts east with the mid-latitude west-to-east jet stream flow. We’re currently experiencing the front (N flow – cool and dry) of that high pressure. We’ll experience the center of it this weekend (tranquil flow – beautiful) and then the back (S flow – warmer and more humid) of it from about Sunday until mid-next week. As it turns out it’s looking like 60-70 with 40 dews currently on the front side, 70-80 with 50 dews Friday-Saturday and then 75-85 with 60 dews Sunday-Tuesday. So, a fall slap to the face now, back to average Friday-Saturday, which is beautiful and dry, then more like late-summer Sunday through Tuesday…all rain-free. Another noticeable cold front is then expected in the Tuesday PM-Wednesday AM period to bring some much-needed rainfall and return us to cool and comfortable again until next weekend. While outside of my comfort zone, some long-range signals are hinting at another warm snap in the ~Oct 12-16 period. A volatile pattern of cool and dry switching with warm and humid for 3-4 days at a time. Makes sense given how tropical systems, even offshore, can mess with the meridional nature of how NJ gets its cold and warm air masses. But we’ll see about Oct 12-16. Sometimes the models overcorrect in strange ways yielding false suggestions. I don’t see any rainfall until the cold front mid-next week, which doesn’t bode well for the developing drought situation. Also, no NJ threats from the tropics for the foreseeable forecast period. I do see a tropical signal for the Greater Antilles around Oct 10-14 but just a weak signal from this range that would have to gain support data to become a realistic possibility.

Forecast

Friday (Oct 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations with a very pleasant feel. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Oct 4) high temperatures should reach the 75-82 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. While humidity will be increased, it is only coming back to pleasant levels not uncomfortable levels, so another beautiful day. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 48-58 range NNJ to SNJ as humidity continues to gradually trickle upward.

Sunday (Oct 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Coasties likely held to mid-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a slightly humid feel. Still another gorgeous day but you’re probably fine in t-shirts and shorts at least during daylight hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from about 50-60 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (Oct 6-10) indicates the warmer and slightly humid, late-summer feel, lasting through Tuesday. A rainy cold front should push through between Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM and reset temps and humidity back to the fall feel for Wednesday into next weekend. Similar to how this week is panning out. Everyone please enjoy the sunny dry weather, have a great weekend and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC