A Much Better Weekend

Discussion: The upper jet looks rather meridional as we bounce back and forth between trough, ridge and trough. The current trough is departing (responsible for the colder feel) as a weak but sufficient ridge builds this weekend and warms NJ up a little. A small upper low should then boot the ridge out Monday, recover to more of a zonal flow Monday into Tuesday, and then a larger and deeper upper low/trough moves in for Wednesday-forward. At the surface this means we will warm up a few degrees for Saturday (sunniest day of the weekend) but still likely remain in the 60s. Sunday then looks cloudier but the warmer day of the weekend. Temps should push into the 70s as we experience a warm sector out ahead of a rainy cold front. As of now, most of Sunday looks dry during the daytime. The rain should hold off until later Sunday night. What I’m watching for right now is whether the rainy front will be a traditional front that brings anywhere from .15 to .25 inches of rainfall…or of the front of the upper low can produce enough divergence/difluence to spawn a surface low in an area of Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA). If that happens, then rainfall amounts would go up from the additional lifting of the secondary low that forms along the front. This would bring a more beneficial rainfall outcome to areas that saw less rainfall from the nor’easter (away from the ocean and up in WCNJ/NNJ. In either case, we should get a dry Sunday daytime in despite clouds with most rain falling overnight Sunday night into Monday. Rain should clear out by Monday PM hours with W (zonal) flow setting up for Monday PM through Tuesday. We likely won’t maintain highs in the 70s for Monday and Tuesday but still likely mid-to-upper 60s. The larger third trough feature should then push a second cold front through, with rain possible again, and return all of NJ back to the current colder fall feel. Here’s to hoping that the drought-developed areas (NWNJ/NNJ/WCNJ/SWNJ – not ECNJ/SENJ) catch up on some rainfall by Monday afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the dry Friday night through Sunday evening, including all of Saturday. I know the farm activities will be happy after this last nor’easter weekend.

Forecast

Friday (Oct 17) high temperatures maxed out in the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations with mostly sunny skies and a light N/NW breeze. A gorgeous fall day in the garden state. Overnight lows should dip into the 30s for many areas away from the ocean. A small chance of a freeze for NNJ elevations but a good chance of a frost for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal areas should hover in the mid-40s. A chilly fall night.

Saturday (Oct 18) high temperatures should reach the 65-70 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ locations with coastal areas falling to the 50-55 range.

Sunday (Oct 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain expected to move in later Sunday night. Winds should be light to breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should hover in the 55-60 range as rainfall persists into at least early Monday morning.

An early look at next week (Oct 20-24) indicates a rainy start Monday morning, transitional improvement Monday into Tuesday (staying slightly milder – highs in the mid-to-upper 60s) and then back to the chilly fall feel Wednesday-forward (highs in the 50s/lower-60s). Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC