Mixed Conditions Before the Cold Arrives

Discussion: 250mb analysis indicates zonal flow for this weekend before shaping into an aggressive trough by Monday with a raging PVA sector from coastal SE US through the 40N/70W benchmark. 500mb analysis jives with the 250mb look with a deep anomalous trough and an upper low centered over the TN/NJ border Monday afternoon. What prevents this from being a perfect setup for a snowstorm is a positive W US ridge axis which translates to a positive trough axis for the E US. Otherwise, you have nice blocking over Greenland with all snowstorm players on the field. The positive axis of the W US ridge and E US trough will likely mean a late phase of energy (S stream too fast – N stream too slow) and a weak surface low tracking just over/off the coast of NJ.  This means that Sunday’s precipitation from the synoptic low will likely be in the form of cold rain (you never know for Sussex County peaks). Even if the highest elevations changed over to a mix of rain and slow there would be no accumulations. By Monday afternoon, the entire region will be cold enough aloft for snow but the surface will be just too warm for maybe the lower 2/3 of NJ. This means that flurries are the only snow possibility either from the upper low trailing through and/or some cold flow aloft over the still-warm Great Lakes. Again, no accumulations, closings or cancellations expected but possibly the first conversational flakes of the colder season. It could happen anytime Mon-Wed with NWNJ elevations favored and especially overnight. We then balance out into a more seasonal situation for the rest of next week. But for this weekend, a little rain tonight into tomorrow morning, another beautiful day on Saturday and then a rainy Sunday after a dry break Sunday morning.

Forecast

Friday (Nov 7) high temperatures, despite bottoming out in the 20s/30s this morning, should reach near-60 for most NJ locations, maybe even the low-to-mid 60s away from the ocean in SNJ. Skies should start mostly clear but increase in cloud coverage into evening hours with rain moving in overnight. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW, picking up some overnight. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Nov 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Overnight rain from Friday night should wrap up early allowing for the majority of Saturday to be dry but possibly a little breezy out of the W/NW until afternoon, especially for coastal regions. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with winds re-establishing out of the SE by Sunday morning.

Sunday (Nov 9) high temperatures should range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely pushing in by late-morning. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SE, breeziest along the ocean coasts. Overnight lows should fall to the 40s statewide as rain continues along the aggressive cold front that will lead the anomalously cold air mass. You might even hear a few rumbles (SNJ favored).

An early look at next week (Nov 10-14) indicates a much colder look and feel. Low dense clouds, vivid sunrises and sunsets, and below average temperatures. Tuesday/Tuesday night appears to be the coldest point of the week. Tuesday highs might not make it out of the upper-30s for NWNJ elevations (40s for the rest of NJ). Overnight lows should fall below freezing for all of NJ less the immediate coast. Flurries are possible, especially for NWNJ during the coldest Mon-Wed period of the week. As we progress beyond Tuesday, we should gradually return to conditions more seasonably average (highs in the 50s/lows in the 30s/40s. Most of next week looks dry too. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC