Mixed Conditions as Fall Begins to Sunset

Discussion: 250mb analysis indicates upper NW flow for much of the next 6-7 days outside of a small break this Saturday. 500mb geopotential height analysis reflects this with a small break in the lower height anomalies on Saturday. With that said, Saturday should be the mildest day we’ve had in a bit with some SNJ spots possibly reaching the 60-degree mark. Otherwise, the general colder pattern we’re in should persist through Friday (tomorrow) and then resume from Sunday through at least Thursday of next week. Saturday’s dew points (humidity) creep higher as some rain approaches for Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. It could rain Saturday anytime after 5pm but should wrap-up by 10am Sunday at the latest. That leaves the most probable window for rain being about 7pm Saturday to 7am Sunday. We’re then back to the colder windy pattern until high pressure moves through and starts to bring return flow (out of the S) around Thursday. Given the sharp transition from a -NAO/-AO to a +NAO/+AO between Nov 20-22, we can likely assume some type of synoptic rainmaker system in that period. The last third or week rather of November then looks milder which includes the Thanksgiving period.

I then expect another synoptic pattern-shifting event to occur around the last day of November/first day of December to usher in a cold December period. There’s a lot going on that’s pointing towards an early winter start. We have the -QBO westerly winds around the equator which favors Arctic air spills into the lower latitudes. We have a weak La Nina ENSO state. We have the return of -NAO (Greenland Blocking). We have the lowest sun-angle of the year shaping up. We have a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) expected around Nov 30 just SW of the N Pole which could elongate the polar vortex into the E US and propagate downward through the troposphere by mid-December. Lots of signs that this winter should at least open up with a bang IMO. For this weekend, enjoy the milder Saturday, stay dry Saturday night and then get ready for a breezy/gusty but dry Sunday.

Forecast

Friday (Nov 14) high temperatures topped out in the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies are mixed with a few isolated showers possible here and there this evening/overnight…but most NJ areas should stay dry. Winds have been light-to-breezy out of the W/NW but should relax to just light out of the W/NW overnight as lows bottom out in the 30-40 range NNJ to SNJ (below freezing for NWNJ elevations and some interior SNJ Pine Barrens).

Saturday (Nov 15) high temperatures should range from 50-60 from NWNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should start mixed with sun and clouds but transition to cloudy by afternoon with rain possible for evening hours (5pm into overnight). Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 as rain continues. Can’t rule out a boomer for SNJ.

Sunday (Nov 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies might start rainy in the morning but should give way to clearing by mid-to-late morning. My gut says the rain shuts off around sunrise but let’s allow until 9-10am to be safe. Winds should then become breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 30-40 range NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (Nov 17-21) indicates more of the slightly colder pattern persisting. Highs in the mid-to-upper 40s for elevations/low-to-mid 50s for rest of NJ. Overnight lows 30-45. Early data suggests a warmer/milder last-third of November (including Thanksgiving) but December is looking cold with snow potential. An early start to winter. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC