Wet Start. Conditions Improve.

Discussion: The upper level flow will stay zonal across the E US from now until about Black Friday with a weak ridge flex next Tuesday-Wednesday. That’s when surface temperatures could spike above 60 across parts of New Jersey. A trough then moves into place for Thanksgiving weekend and chills us down into colder temperatures. Early indicators suggest a synoptic-driven ridge or two the first week of December before the colder pattern gets going the 2^nd week of December (globally driven – MJO, ENSO, etc.). Think of a rubber band snapping back and forth as the pattern transitions from the colder November to a warmer pre-Thanksgiving period to a colder Thanksgiving weekend to a warmer first week of December to eventually prolonged cold settling in by the start of winter. As far as precipitation goes, we have rain moving in late tonight/early Saturday morning and clearing out by late-Saturday morning with improvement for Saturday PM hours and a nice dry Sunday-Monday. High pressure then floats overhead Tuesday making Tuesday the nicest day of next week. More rain is possible Wednesday-Thursday along the cold front as the colder air mass settles into the region on Black Friday. Therefore, there could be some rain for Thanksgiving travel interests. I will take a much closer look for the Thanksgiving week outlook (expected out Monday).

Forecast

Friday (Nov 21) high temperatures should max out in the mid-50s give or take a few degrees. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sun here and there but not many. Eventually, period of rain should move in this evening/tonight. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 range as periods of rainfall carry into Saturday.

Saturday (Nov 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should start cloudy with a few periods of rain around but gradually improve once into late morning/afternoon hours. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most NJ locations (at or just below freezing NW of I-95) with NWNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 20s. Skies should clear for overnight hours.

Sunday (Nov 23) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (Nov 24-28) indicates more of the same to start the week (highs in the 50s lows in the 30s) with a mild run-up to thanksgiving where some locations pop into the lower-60s Tues-Wed. We’re then looking at a cold front coming through around or just after Thanksgiving to set up a colder weekend. Plan for some rain the day before and on Thanksgiving for travel interests. Some long-range indicators suggest a milder first week of December before the pattern changes to a much colder look the 2^nd and 3^rd week of December heading into the start of winter. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC