A Few Snow Chances on the Table for Jersey

Discussion: Our current situation (Wednesday afternoon) is very synoptic driven. A ~990mb low is tracking across the Great Lakes. It has dragged a warm front over NJ from S to N putting us in the warm sector for now. That’s why temps are ranging 50-65 right now from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. It’s approaching 70 for coastal Cape May County. Off to the W is a cold front attached to the Great Lakes low that will push across NJ from W to E this evening/overnight as the low tracks further eastward. It would make meteorological sense for there to be at least a strip of short-lived rain, maybe even a boomer, just ahead of that cold front pushing through NJ this evening. Once through, that’s going to start the initial chill-down through Thursday where temps are noticeably colder with breezy W/NW winds making it seem colder. Thanksgiving Thursday does look dry though despite the colder temps and breezy winds, but it’s only the first gear of cold. The second gear of cold will come Thursday night into Friday when more of the colder trough moves over NJ. Friday highs might stay below 40 for NNJ elevations and likely below 45 for most of NJ. Will take some time to escape the 30s Friday morning and will quickly return to 30s after sundown Friday evening. W/NW winds will subside by Friday night. But from Thursday night through Friday night, when winds are blowing across the Great Lakes, towards NJ, the lake effect snow machine will be kicked back on. There is high certainty that NY State and NWPA see some solid snow streamers. There is lower non-zero chances of these lake effect streamers making it to at least NWNJ, possibly down to 95 in NJ. Little-to-no accumulation expected so likely conversational snow unless it falls across NWNJ when temps are closer to freezing Friday morning/night. But likely not during the day. Again, this would be for Thursday night through Friday. That’s the first chance to see some snowfall.

Temperatures stay colder through about Sunday morning. Hard to tell if early Friday morning, early Saturday morning or early Sunday morning will be the coldest point as we’re weighing cold air advection vs. overnight radiational cooling. But either way, Saturday highs will start a moderation trend in temps felt even more so Sunday before we start next week.

On Monday, two areas of energy will move off the Pacific/out of the Arctic and try to couple together for Tuesday as they push together towards the E US. If they couple early and more aggressively, we get a snowstorm. If they couple later and weaker, we get strung out series of showers in a marginal temperature situation…meaning cold enough for light snow aloft but too warm at the lower levels/surface for snow to hit the ground and stick/likely cold rain. That’s what I will be watching tonight, through Thanksgiving and into Friday. That will be the key to whether the Tuesday NJ snowstorm is a go or not from a forecasting perspective. Until Friday I am just watching and taking notes. We’re fighting serious climatology/ocean temps this time of year. Average highs are upper-40s/near-50 and ocean temps are still near-50. It takes a solid event to bring snow SE of I-95 this time of year (Dec 2009/the Eagles Game 2013/Dec 5 2018). Certainly doable (and we’re due) but chances favor snow happening NW of 95 vs SW of 95. But even still, the GFS, Canadian and Euro all see at least something happening. The GFS is the most aggressive (earlier energy coupling). The Euro is least impressed (latest energy coupling) and the Canadian splits the difference currently. I’ll keep model updates going in KABOOM Club but the next public update will likely be Friday. Friday will be go vs no go day for Tuesday.

There are very interesting long range wintry signals still showing for December into January. The MJO has the best tropical forcing along the E Equatorial Pacific drifting through regions 7-8-1-2 during this timeframe which traditionally means cold and snowy for the E US. The ENSO state remains in a weak La Nina which historically favors snowier winters. The QBO remains negative which allows for cold air to spill further S into mid-latitudes. Look for the AO and NAO to drop into negative phases once we’re about halfway through December. I am in no way, shape or form calling for a White Christmas but it’s the best chance we’ve had in years, possibly a decade. More to come.

In English: Temps are spiking in the warm sector currently (Wednesday afternoon) especially for SNJ/SENJ. Later this evening/tonight, a short period of rain possibly a boomer will lead a cold front through NJ. This will drop the temp environment for Thanksgiving Thursday through about Sunday morning. Look out for mostly conversational lake-effect snowfall Thursday night through Friday (NWNJ favored over SENJ). Then a short reprieve of milder temps Sunday-Monday before a possible snow/rain event moves across NJ on Tuesday (also favored for NWNJ over SENJ). I’m watching this second snow possibility closely and will revisit publicly on Friday as Friday will be go vs. no go on the Tuesday snow event. Have a great rest of Wednesday and a Happy Thanksgiving! Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC