A Milder Break but Stormy Friday

Discussion: We’re currently in an Arctic air mass that will be slow to erode mainly because of NW flow ahead of the approaching ridge and the fresh snow pack across NJ and to areas NW of NJ. It’s probably going to be Wednesday when the milder conditions are most noticeable. Today is obviously cold and we’re going to fall into another very cold night tonight (Monday night). Anything from flurries to light snow showers are possible tonight as a weak wave of energy dissolves overhead. Tuesday will be not as cold with much of NJ climbing back above freezing during the day but again, slow for the colder air mass to erode and likely another cold night Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the flow becomes SW and we finally push into 40ss again for highs. But we’ll still fall below freezing for most of NJ Wednesday night. On Thursday, high pressure is expected to posh offshore subject NJ to milder return flow from the S. This will create a warm sector ahead of an approaching frontal system that will be attached to a SE Canadian low. Temps should spike their warmest late Thursday night into most of Friday before falling again Friday night behind the cold front. NJ should assume a decent amount of rainfall riding this cold front. It’s been well modeled and represented on the cover image above. The brown is wintry (way to the N) and the purple is rainfall. You can see the 97mb primary in SE Canada as well as a secondary 996mb forming over NJ. This secondary could enhance rainfall Thursday night into Friday and possibly introduce some thunderstorm activity if it comes together just right. Conditions look to improve Friday afternoon-forward into the weekend despite falling temps behind the frontal passage. This weekend then looks dry…colder Saturday and milder Sunday but still colder nights.

There has been a lot of talk and sensationalism about this warmup. Last week there was sound data advertising a torch pattern and many ran with it. It has now backed off to just 1-2 transient milder periods heading into Christmas. We saw this with the first week of December if you can remember. Models showed a torch and then backed off to just transient warmth in the mid-range forecasting period. What we have going on are global oscillations and patterns like the ENSO, TNH, QBO and an elongated PV centralized near Hudson Bay in Canada  fighting with synoptic (region-wide) influences like warm sector and ridge formation and temporary southern stream influence. The models pick up on the synoptic stuff but then take some time to figure out the global stuff takes priority. What we’re now looking at are two period of milder conditions between this Wednesday-Friday and then this Sunday through Christmas Eve with a small cold break to that around Dec 23. It will not be high of 70 torch stuff; it will most likely be a high of 45-55 NNJ to SNJ with still colder nights. Christmas Day-forward looks like we’re back to business with the overall larger theme of a colder winter continuing into as far as I can comfortably see, temp trend-wise, which is maybe through the first third of January.

So as we navigate the next 10 days or so with 3-4 day mild periods checkered with 1-2 day colder periods, we have a few signals to watch: Dec 23, Dec 25-26 and then something a few days before the New Year. Dec 23 looks like a N stream system that could dive into the NorthEast US out of Canada, possibly impacting some of the N Mid-Atlantic US (including NJ) with some wintry conditions. Then there’s another signal just behind that for Christmas Day into Dec 26 which looks like a snow/ice to rain situation from this range. After that, the long range models like something in the Dec 27-30 range but that’s still a ways out. So the pattern will be active. There’s nothing else to do but casually watch the data evolve and unfold. For now, our most immediate and confident signal is a warm sector frontal passage this Thursday night into Friday morning which could bring strong S winds, periods of heavy rain and possibly some boomers if conditions fall just right.

Forecast

Monday (Dec 15) high temperatures should stay at or just below freezing statewide. A cold day after a cold night. Much of NJ will see mixed sun and clouds however passing snow showers are possible this afternoon/early evening with NWNJ favored over the rest of NJ to see such. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 10-25 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Dec 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 30s with most of NJ climbing just above freezing. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 20-32 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Dec 17) high temperatures should reach onto the 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 20-32 range NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Dec 18) high temperatures should reach the 45-55 range NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start clear but increase in cloud coverage by afternoon/evening with rain likely moving in overnight. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE, breeziest for immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Overnight lows should fall to the 38-45 range NNJ to SNJ as winds pick up statewide and rain persists into Friday.

Friday (Dec 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most NJ locations. Skies should start rainy, possibly with a few rumbles, before improving by afternoon. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 20s statewide once the cold front fully pushes through.

An early look at the weekend (Dec 20-21) indicates a colder day Saturday with highs 30-40 followed by a milder Sunday with highs 45-50. Both days look mixed with sun and clouds without precipitation. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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