New Year’s Eve-Day Outlook

Discussion: 2025 is almost over. A few more days of colder conditions and then we step into what looks like an active pattern in January with below average temperatures and above average snowfall.

Most of New Jersey should dip into the low-to-mid 20s overnight tonight (Tuesday night) as winds gradually subside from gusty to just breezy out of the W/NW. Can’t rule out some flurries with the lake effect snow machine turned on. NWNJ would have the best chance. SENJ the least.

Wednesday, Dec 31 (New Year’s Eve) should reach a temp range of 30-35 NNJ to SNJ. Still a little breezy out of the W/NW but overall an ok day for travel. Overnight lows should then fall to the 20-30 range NNJ to SNJ heading into New Year’s Day with snow flurries and showers possible.

Thursday, Jan 1 (New Year’s Day) should start with scattered flurries and snow showers with any snow likely wrapping up by afternoon/early evening. Winds still out of the W/NW but just light-to-breezy. With an Arctic frontal passage expect overnight lows into Friday to fall to the 10-20 range NNJ to SNJ.

As far as how much snow will fall Dec 31 into Jan 1, it’s not that big a deal. We have a moisture starved clipper moving across from W/NW to E/SE, just N of NJ. I see a lot of wobble and possibly some transfer involved as it tries to jump from the E Great Lakes to the Atlantic Ocean. This could cause dry slotting across NJ which could really limit the amount of light snow/flurries that fall. On the other hand, if the precip shield stays more together from a less transferring low, then it would be more of a statewide snow shower/flurries situation. Max upside potential would be a C-2 situation for NNJ elevations and maybe just dustings/coatings for areas further S. Again, in either scenario, not a big deal.

In English: We finish 2025 on the colder side with some snow showers and flurries possible, especially New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day. Not a big deal, anything from just scattered flurries to statewide snow showers and flurries. More of a conversational snowfall. I don’t see even light accumulations outside of NNJ/elevations. I continue to monitor a few signals in the Jan 5-12 window (two signals within that period) but need to get past this weak clipper before taking seriously. Models are all over the place and as usual, are having trouble handling the pattern. Look for a Jan 2 update publicly. Unless the clipper takes a turn more seriously, this might be the final 2025 public article update. I’ll post observation reel(s). In that case, have a happy new year and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC