Mild Weather Pattern Detected!

Discussion: Friday and Saturday should verify on the milder side. Some spots hit 50 on Friday but most of NJ should break into the 50s, possibly tap near-60, on Saturday. Both days dry but could feature fog/freezing fog overnight as warm air advects over remaining snowpack. On Sunday, a cold front will pass through and let us taste the last bit of Arctic air Sunday night through Monday. The cold front should feature some precipitation but nothing crazy. Snow/mixed precip could graze NNJ while CNJ/SNJ likely see anything from a wintry mix to all rain. Little to no accumulations in all cases outside of NNJ/NWNJ seeing a trace-to-light event. A cold night Sunday night and a cold Monday but we’re then dry and more temperate through Tuesday. Another disturbance could bring light wintry precip to the table at first Tuesday morning but changing to rain for all areas by Tuesday afternoon. We’ll stay and dry Wednesday into Thursday morning. Then Thursday morning should feature a rain event that kick-starts a period of prolonged warmth thanks to a zonal flow pattern beneath the jet giving way to more of a meridional ridge. This will allow surface temps to build into the 60s, possibly 70s for NJ in the March 5-12 period. We then return back to a more realistic temperature profile after March 12. I’ll be watching for any polar vortex activity that returns us cold enough to support snow in the second half of March. It’s rare but possible as we all know.    

Forecast

Friday (Feb 27) high temperatures, as of 2pm, are in the mid-40s for most NJ locations. A few spots away from the ocean have reached 50 and a few immediate coastal regions are stuck in the mid-to-upper 30s. Skies should remain mostly sunny and clear. Winds are becoming light out of the SW. Overnight lows should dip back to the 20-30 range (NNJ-SNJ). Freezing fog is possible so please be careful with visibility and slick surfaces/re-freezing/etc.

Saturday (Feb 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Can’t take a run at 60 off the table, especially for interior CNJ/SNJ. Should obliterate most of the remaining snowpack less larger plow mounds. After any fog/freezing fog clears in the morning, skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 28-34 range NNJ-SNJ with more fog/freezing fog possible.

Sunday (March 1) high temperatures should range from 36-48 NNJ-SNJ. Precipitation is possible between 7am and 2pm. It will be moving W to E. S of I-78 will most likely be rain. Between I-78 and and I-80 might see a wintry mix work into the rain. N of I-80 and NW of I-287 could see a more wintry mix of snow and sleet with little-to-no snow accumulation. The primary hazards are slippery roads from any light wintry accumulations that do occur up that way. Winds should be light-to-breezy at first out of the SW but change to breezy out of the NW by evening with the cold front passage. Overnight lows should fall to the 10-20 range NNJ-SNJ (lower teens for most of NJ – near-20 along immediate coasts).  

An early look at next week (March 2-6) indicates Monday being the last “cold cold” day for a while with highs possibly not reaching 32. I’m monitoring a disturbance late Monday night into Tuesday that could start out as wintry precipitation but eventually changing to rain for all areas. This is the last signal we may have to make a map for for a while, we’ll see. But it looks light with accumulations likely struggling due to Tuesday’s rapidly warming temperatures. It’s really only Tuesday morning before 8am that there might be some travel issues. Will continue to monitor but as of now, looks weak overall from a wintry perspective. Conditions then return to highs in the 40 type stuff for Wed and Thurs of next week. Another disturbance (all rain) is then possible Thursday that should kick off an abnormally warm period from about March 5 until at least March 12. I’m seeing highs in the 60s, possibly even 70!!! A true teaser taste of spring to come. Lots of “stomach bugs going around” should correlate with lots of golf courses with no tee times available LOL. At some point we’ll return back to at least average, possibly below-average temps, to close out the second half of March. Whether or not the polar vortex tries to take us well-below average again for some early spring snow is yet TBD. But the baseball game goes until March 30. I’ll update on the late Monday PM/Tuesday potential accordingly. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC  

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers an ad-free environment, inside info (Above and Beyond) forecast discussion, your questions prioritized, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At $1.99 per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ and you can turn it on and off for however many months you wish. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts from real meteorologists and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ commercial interests.

KABOOM Shop is live if you want some KABOOM or Weather NJ Merch!

Get the ZoneWatch Radar App!

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC