Gloomy Start. Spring Tease Finish

Discussion: As of today, Friday 3-6-2026 at 2:56pm, our weak wave has moved offshore and so has the rain associated with it. Rainfall over the past 24 hours was much needed and likely took out much of the remaining snowpack…all beneficial liquid draining into the water tables. Snowpack should be down to just plow banks and mounds which will be long gone by the end of this weekend. This weekend will be transitional. Today was the coolest day (40s). Tomorrow is milder than today but still on the cooler side (50s). Sunday should be the warmest day of the weekend as many locations finally break the 60 mark. The reason for this is a back door cold front on the S side of high pressure tracking W to E across the Canadian/US border.  Once that high tracks far enough E, the Bermuda high will take control of NJ and the region with warmer SW return flow. Right now, we think that it happens somewhere between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Then Monday-Wednesday should be the warmest days of the warm stretch with NJ temps away from the ocean likely breaking the 70 mark while immediate coastal areas possibly hang in the 60s, possibly only the 50s due to the 36-37-degree ocean marine influence. A cold front then takes us back to reality Thursday-forward. Still seeing a trough move in March 16-ish and bringing back the below-average temperature theme of the winter but not cold enough for a snowstorm during the day. It would have to occur overnight and right now there are no storm signals showing. Will monitor accordingly as we approach closer. But the second half of March does look colder after we get through this 4-5 day milder stretch.

Forecast

Friday (March 6) high temperatures have maxed in the low-to-mid 40s as expected with cloudy skies. Winds should remain light out of the E/NE as overnight lows fall to the 35-40 range NNJ-SNJ. Overnight skies should remain cloudy with fog, mist and/or some light drizzle in spots.

Saturday (March 7) high temperatures should reach the 50-55 range for most NJ locations. SWNJ should be the warmest (best chance to approach 60) and NNJ the chilliest (best chance to remain locked in the 40s). Skies should remain mostly cloudy. Winds should be light to start out of the SE then gradually become out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should hold near-50 for most NJ locations.

Sunday (March 8) high temperatures should reach the 60-65 range for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal regions are subject to cooler temperatures via marine influence. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out isolated stray showers across the state. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 NNJ-SNJ.

An early look at next week (March 9-13) indicates Monday-Wednesday being the warmest days of the week with the chance for many to push into the 70s for high temperatures away from the ocean (cooler along coast due to marine influence). A solid spring tease before a cold front returns us back closer to average temperatures Thursday into next weekend. Still seeing some colder signals beyond March 16 but no snowstorm signals as of now. Let’s take a closer look in a few days.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC