Very Warm and Mostly Dry

Discussion: This week’s weather will be driven by an E US ridge supported by high pressure just N of Bermuda. So, lots of SW or S/SW flow into NJ driving a warmer pattern. This looks to flex Tues-Thurs with Wed likely the hottest day but all three days very warm. While there are no synoptic rain systems expected, the anomalous warmth (some records could go down) could possibly produce isolated showers and thunderstorms here and there. Perhaps a sea breeze moves in with enough lift for ECNJ/SENJ…or an orographic influence off the Appalachians across NNJ. So, this week looks mostly dry overall except for localized isolated activity. Not the best look for the current drought development and what that means for forest fire risk/safety. A weak upper level disturbance is then expected to pass through between Friday and Saturday. This could drag some rain across NNJ. This should push temps back down from “too warm” to just “a nice day” starting Friday and that theme should continue into the weekend. I’m still seeing a trough move in to establish a colder wetter April 20-25 period. It would begin with a frontal rain/storm system early next week and hopefully some synoptic rainfall to follow later next week.

Forecast

Monday (April 13) high temperatures made it well into the 70s for most NJ locations. A few interior CNJ/SNJ locations flirted with 80 while the ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas maxed in 60s with immediate barrier islands hanging in the 50s. Skies should remain mixed with more clouds than sun and isolated/passing showers are possible through evening/overnight hours. Nothing significant though. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay above 50 for most NJ locations and in some cases closer to 60.

Tuesday (April 14) high temperatures should push into the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ areas away from the ocean. Even coasties should see 70s. Could the warmest spots of the state run at 90? Sure, they could given the lower dew points = dry conditions. Also I’d be surprised if there was no sea breeze kicked up in the afternoon…which would chill out the immediate coast a bit due to colder marine influence. We’ll see. Most of the day should be mixed with more sun than clouds. However, with such a warm environment, we can’t rule out afternoon/evening isolated showers or thunderstorms. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to and hover around 60.

Wednesday (April 15) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most of NJ away from the ocean. Wouldn’t be surprised to see low-to-mid 90s closer to the 95 corridor. Even coasties have a chance to break 80 before any potential sea breeze pushes sub-60 degree air mass onshore. Again, most of the day looks mixed with more sun than clouds, but the warmer environment could possibly whip something isolated up for afternoon/evening hours. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 60s with a few passing isolated showers around.  

Thursday (April 16) high temperatures should reach the 85-90 range. A few degrees “not as hot” as Wednesday. Coasties likely held in the 70s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are possible for the third day in a row. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 58-64 range for most NJ locations.

Friday (April 17) high temperatures should reach near-80 away from the ocean and maybe mid-70s along the ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. So, not as hot as prior few days but still warm. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW to start but become a little more out of the W/NW by evening. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-60 range for most NJ locations.  

An early look at the weekend (April 18-19) indicates pretty good conditions. Highs into the 70s and mostly dry. Will keep an eye on it and revisit in a few days. Have a great week in the meantime and please be safe! JC

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