Cold Start. Unsettled Finish

Discussion: We’re currently under a trough which means lower geopotential heights. With the higher sun angle destabilizing the surface under the colder lower-mid and mid-level conditions aloft, we’re seeing some hail with these passing isolated showers moving through, especially those with heavier downpours. It’s not sleet though, it’s hail. The trough doesn’t move out until Wednesday morning so expect another cold Monday and Tuesday for daily highs and especially overnight lows. Frosts, even freezes, are possible tonight (Monday night) and Tuesday night. Wednesday, after a cold AM start, finally reaches back up to near-60 for highs and then Thursday and Friday are flat-out gorgeous with room temperature feel (low-to-mid 70s) and sun/light breeze. That’s when NJ will move under a ridge. Unfortunately, the weekend looks cooler than Thurs-Fri as height fields straighten out into more of a zonal flow—bringing in cooler air from the W/NW. The weekend also looks unsettled with rain on-and-off at times. We’ll take as much of it as we can get though.

Forecast

Monday (April 20) high temperatures are ranging from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should remain mixed with sun, clouds and passing showers. Because of the colder air aloft, hail is possible with any downpour but we are not in a severe thunderstorm situation. Winds should remain out of the NW, a little breezy afternoon into evening but then subsiding overnight under clear skies. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s in NNJ to mid-30s in SNJ…possibly record lows broken less than a week after near-record highs!

Tuesday (April 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly clear and sunny. Winds should become light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-45 range for most NJ locations with isolated passing showers possible into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday (April 22) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ locations. Skies could start with some isolated passing showers around but should improve by afternoon into evening. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (April 23) high temperatures should be back in business…mid-to-upper 70s away from the ocean and mid-to-upper 60s along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-55 range NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (April 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Mid-to-upper 60s closer to the coast and likely near-60 right along the immediate coast.. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall to the 40s for most NJ locations with more passing isolated showers possible.

An early look at the weekend (April 25-26) indicates unsettled and cooler conditions again. Highs in the mid-to-upper 50s, maybe just hitting 60. Cloudy with showers around. Thursday and Friday looking like the best days of the week. Let’s have another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC