We Could Use the Rain

Discussion: Most people will be disappointed in the rainy weekend, however, our grounds will embrace the rain as happy as the woman in this image. A split flow pattern will form over the SE US this weekend putting NJ under the northern stream. Despite NJ sitting under neutral height anomalies this weekend, we have a colder upper flow out of Canada and a weakly organized disturbance out in the ocean. We’ll talk more about that in a minute but we then move into some higher heights Sunday PM through about Wednesday before dipping back into a colder air mass that could last all the way through the first third of May. Highs breaking 60 could be rare during that stretch. While frustrating for the warm season lovers, it’s a trough and therefore an unsettled rainmaker for our grounds, reservoirs and aquifers. We’ll see how the long-range pattern continues to unfold. But yeah, I am seeing a below-average temperature above-average precipitation pattern from about next Thursday through ~May 10. Back to this weekend, the weak upper disturbance will slowly meander through the central Mid-Atlantic US into the ocean between now and Sunday. The period of rain for NJ is looking like Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. Not a continuous washout though…more so a persistent drizzle/light rain that may transition to a steadier rain at times. Continuous clouds and nuisance conditions for outdoor activities though. Total precipitation could exceed 1 inch when the weekend is all said and done. NNJ would see their inch mark broken before SNJ. But it does look like a long and drawn out inch of rain over 24-36 hours rather than a quick dumper. So we’re nice tonight, cloudy and rainy Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon and then improvement into Sunday afternoon/evening. Next week 60s and more settled and the following week maybe only 50s and unsettled.  

Forecast

Friday (April 24) high temperatures have just pushed over 70 for most NJ areas away from the ocean. Some still in the upper-60s, mainly NNJ elevations. Coastal regions are held down to the 50s. Another day where areas near the ocean are vastly different than just ~20 miles inland. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the NE (what’s keeping coasties cooler). Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range.

Saturday (April 25) high temperatures should reach a few degrees on either side of 50 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain expected. Rain should start light as an on-and-off drizzle but eventually turn into a steadier rain evening into overnight hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E…less breeze for WNJ/NNJ and breeziest along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-45 range as on-and-off drizzle/rain increases intensity into Sunday morning. Winds could become gusty at times off the ocean.

Sunday (April 26) high temperatures should push to the 50-55 range for most NJ areas. A few spots may flirt with 60. The first half of the day should be about on-and-off drizzle/rain and wind eventually winding down. Rain should end by early-to-late afternoon with a transition to just clouds and then possibly sun breaking through prior to sundown. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE…again breeziest along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-30s/lower-40s with much-improved skies.

An early look at next week (April 27-May 1) indicates highs mostly in the 60s with tranquil conditions. Chilly nights still with lows down to the 45-55 range elevations to coasts. Perhaps some spring showers concentrated around mid-week. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC