Who turned up the Heat?

Discussion: The jet stream will remain N of NJ (ridging) for the foreseeable future, except for this Saturday into Sunday when a positive and progressive trough will quickly move through. This is not enough for a washout but more of an “isolated showers and thunderstorms” kind of thing. It looks much better today than it did a few days ago. Impossible to pinpoint where random activity will hit but it IS hit or miss this Saturday and Sunday with much less storm activity expected, nowhere near a widespread washout. Many will say “that’s it?” or “where’s the rain” while only some will say “wow that was a solid downpour and frequent lightning.” If hit (lower chance), you could see short periods of downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning. If missed (a better chance), you will likely just experience a regular-feeling humid summer day with maybe some rumbles in the distance if closely missed. For the most part, activity should hold off on Saturday until at least in the afternoon, possibly in the early evening. And Sunday might see most of its action earlier in the day. With that said, Saturday morning and Sunday night look better than Saturday night and Sunday morning. And it will likely be quick-moving cells if hit. We then slide back into the ridge pattern for next week right into next weekend. Lots of 80s and 90s with little rainfall. Not good for drought concerns at all as we continue to stay vigilant and monitor with fire safety in mind.

Forecast

Friday (June 5) high temperatures, as of about 330pm, peaked in the 90s for many with some (elevations and coasts) hovering in the 80s. Immediate coast near-80. Dew points are only in the 45-55 range for most of NJ which means a drier heat. If dews were above 65, the NJ misery index would be quite high today. Skies should remain mostly clear with light W winds. Overnight lows should stay above 60 for most of NJ and in some cases above 65.

Saturday (June 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most NJ locations. A run at 100 is not off the table for the traditionally hotter spots near 95/NJTP in CNJ/SNJ. One of those days where you should know the difference between heat stroke and heat exhaustion. Stay as hydrated and cool as your situation possibly allows. Skies should be mostly sunny during daytime hours with a few clouds building by afternoon hours. You should notice a tick upwards in humidity. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon-evening but only isolated, not widespread. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 60s heading into Sunday morning.

Sunday (June 7) high temperatures should reach the upper-80s/lower-90s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. More isolated thunderstorms could be around but likely spotty/isolated rather than a widespread washout. Heavy downpours and lightning are likely for those spots randomly hit but again, a lower chance overall and nowhere near what was showing a few days ago for Sunday. A regular summery-feeling day with sun if missed (but some humidity felt). Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 60s again under clear skies.

An early look at next week (June 8-12) indicates more 80s and 90s right into next weekend. Not seeing much rain though. No large rainmakers so we’ll have to take what we can get from isolated showers and thunderstorms. Drought concerns, especially fire risk/safety-related continue to grow. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC