Weekend Outlook – Solid Improvement

Discussion: The upper levels continue to indicate a zonal flow across the US this weekend into next week. This translates to more of a W/NW to W/SW wind direction at the surface which you’ll see in the days broken down below. Heights look to lean slightly negative which will allow some rain chances to enter the picture next week after this immediate drier weekend.

Many have been asking how a Super El Nino affects NJ weather. Typically, El Nino has less impact in the summer because the upper jet is so far retreated N into Canada. There is, however, also a zonal subtropical jet flow across the S US/Mexico that provides above-average moisture and storm energy (thunderstorms) into the SE and Mid-Atlantic US. In the later summer into fall, El Nino typically suppresses hurricane landfalls. The zonal STJ flow presents shear into the Bahamas/Caribbean which tends to weaken tropical cyclones. Keep in mind, these are general tendencies of a Super El Nino, and that anomalies can happen. An example is the January 2016 snowstorm happening in an El Nino winter. El Nino winters are usually milder on average, however colder periods can still acutely produce snow between the longer mild stretches that skew the overall winter temp average higher. While there is no real way to predict exact Super El Nino specific events, these are the typical/common tendencies. Hope this helps those who were asking.

Forecast

Friday (June 19) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Cloudy morning skies with some drizzle around (more so for SENJ) will eventually give way to improvement with lower humidity. Otherwise, afternoon-forward should be pretty decent. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for NNJ elevations and 60s for the rest of the state.

Saturday (June 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 50-65 NNJ to SNJ with most locations in the 55-60 range.

Sunday (June 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations, perhaps mid-to-upper 80 away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. A touch more humidity than Saturday but still within the comfortable/reasonable range. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (June 22-26) indicates high temps reaching the 80-85 range, low temps dropping to the 57-65 range and a few scattered rain chances. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC </spring><summer>

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC