Unsettled. Heat Wave on the Way

Discussion: The upper-level zonal flow pattern this weekend is going to evolve into what we call a summer death ridge for next week. This means the upper jet will buckle northwards well to the N of NJ and leave NJ under the influence of a hot and humid ridge. But first we have a rather unsettled weekend to get through. Tonight (Friday night) and Saturday represent the most unsettled look…meaning best chances for rain and thunderstorms. Sunday looks improved (best day of weekend) but still isolated chances for such on the table. Humidity will be around for the weekend but the hot temperatures don’t start until next week and should be around Monday-Friday. This means hazy, hot and humid days with mostly sunny skies until afternoon-evening hours where pop-up showers and thunderstorms become very possible. Storms die out with loss of diurnal surface heating (sunlight) after 6pm, the night becomes “uncomfortably warm and humid” and wash-rinse-repeat for the next day. This should take us up to about July 3 when the ridge is expected to break off to the NE. That would fill a void over NJ with more settled conditions before the next incoming ridge builds up into the following week. But I’m not seeing much temp relief even between the heat waves. Basically, it’s the warmest time of year and it’s time to bake.  

Forecast

Friday (June 26) high temperatures have peaked in the general 83-87 range for most NJ locations. A little cooler in the elevations and a little warmer/muggier for the SNJ coasts. Skies started off mostly sunny but have transitioned into more clouds than sun. Expect this to continue with periods of rainfall moving in overnight. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-70 range for most NJ locations. A swampy-feeling night.

Saturday (June 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel as more periods of rain push across NJ from W to E with occasional embedded thunderstorms. While all of NJ is on the hook for rain/t-storms, it looks like SNJ is the most favored for such and NNJ is least favored. CNJ could go either way but in this case I am leaning rainier for CNJ. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall back to the 60s statewide.

Sunday (June 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most of NJ, maybe upper-70s along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds and with a humid feel. Best day of the weekend but we still can’t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm…but nothing crazy or widespread. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall back to the 60s again statewide.

An early look at next week (June 29-July 3) indicates heat. Not going to sugar coat it. It looks like a hot week with statewide temps into the 90s and 100+ not off the table for actual temperatures. Humidity will likely increase heat indices well-above 100, especially areas closer to the I-95/NJTP corridor through NJ. This should create an environment where most of the days are hazy, hot, humid and sunny for most hours…but any day could feature pop-up thunderstorms especially between afternoon and early evening hours. A very early look at July 4^th weekend indicates more settled conditions but not without lingering heat and humidity. More to come. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers an ad-free environment, inside info (Above and Beyond) forecast discussion, your questions prioritized, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At $1.99 per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ and you can turn it on and off for however many months you wish. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts from real meteorologists and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ commercial interests.

KABOOM Shop is live if you want some KABOOM or Weather NJ Merch!

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC