More Unsettled and Muggy Conditions

Discussion: For this week, we’re going to be under steady SW or W/SW flow aloft due to the jet stream orientation coming from a hot ridge upstream. Climatologically, we are losing the ability to push temperatures into the excessive/dangerous criteria. However, we can still have swampy tropical air masses with this sort of flow which will make 80-85 degrees feel more like 90-95. And that is what I expect most of this week. Last week, it looked like there might have been another break in the humidity this coming Friday, but that has trended away. The forecast for this week is rather repetitive. Warm (not so much hot) and humid with the chance for passing showers and thunderstorms possible almost every day. Tuesday (tomorrow) looks like the day with the least chance of rain or storms if you are trying to plan the best beach day. But all other days are again, similarly warm, muggy and unsettled. The tropics have quieted down in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. 94L has weakened to just a disturbance and will not likely be re-curving/threatening the E US coast or Bermuda areas.  

Forecast

Monday (Aug 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun and a humid feel. Can’t rule out a passing isolated shower or thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-75 range NNJ to SNJ with more isolated showers and thunderstorms possible into early Tuesday AM.

Tuesday (Aug 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ with a humid feel.

Wednesday (Aug 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should again fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ with a humid feel.

Thursday (Aug 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds and passing showers. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should again fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ with a humid feel.

Friday (Aug 21) high temperatures should reach near or just above 80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out an isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should again fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ with a humid feel and more shower/thunderstorm possibilities.

An early look at the weekend (Aug 22-23) indicates decent cloud coverage with more shower and thunderstorm chances. It does look like NNJ will be a little sunnier than SNJ. And it sort of looks like Saturday will be the better outdoor interest day. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers an ad-free environment, inside info (Above and Beyond) forecast discussion, your questions prioritized, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At $1.99 per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ and you can turn it on and off for however many months you wish. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts from real meteorologists and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ commercial interests.

KABOOM Shop is live if you want some KABOOM or Weather NJ Merch!

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC