Weekend Nor’easter Update

Discussion: I’ve been keeping an eye on the data guidance for this weekend’s potential nor’easter. The GFS, GFS AI and Canadian models remain offshore with their solutions, suggesting the phasing dynamics happening too late to wrap it up into a major NJ hit. Instead you see more of a Cape Cod/Coastal New England hit.

The Euro and Euro AI models are hard nor’easter NJ hits with phasing happening at the right time to wrap the system up and retrograde it into NJ from the NE (a TRUE 12-hour+ nor’easter…not a 6-hour progressive coastal low that typically gets misidentified). If these solutions verify, NJ would expect heavy rainfall, high winds, and coastal flooding/battering…all under a full moon. Heaviest impacts are modeled for Saturday night into Sunday morning within the overall general storm window of late-Friday night to Monday morning.

We have another 24 hours of model data to ingest and analyze before making a go or no-go decision (Wednesday evening). And I might need until Thursday if we’re talking evacuation type stuff.

In English: My advice varies wildly depending on if you live on/near tidal waters (immediate ECNJ/SENJ/SNJ) vs. away from the ocean (most of NJ). If you are away from the ocean, even a hard hit would only mean rain and wind capable of producing power outages. Candles, batteries, gas for the generator type stuff. If you live along the mentioned coasts in areas affected by tidal flooding (areas that typically flood during coastal storms), I would start developing plans to possibly evacuate as early as Friday. Have the plans laid out and understood by all your relevant home people. If you don’t have to implement this plan, then great! If you do, you will be that much better prepared, eliminating panic logic and focusing more on implementing the plan instead of figuring out the plan too late/under pressure. Again, just have some plans in your head should this thing come in hot like the Euro data packages. Be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC